The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July is currently reported at 21.9%.
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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: If necessary, the use of forward guidance can be abandoned to maintain policy flexibility.
PANews reported on July 6 that Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated at a conference on monetary policy transmission in Rome, Italy, that monetary policy decisions must be based on the current "initial conditions" of the economy and cannot mechanically apply historical averages. He pointed out that large-scale shocks can trigger non-linear behavioral changes, thereby altering the time lag of monetary policy and the slope of the Phillips curve. Waller emphasized that forward guidance can influence the market in advance and accelerate policy transmission under certain conditions, but if the wording is too rigid or faces multiple possible scenarios, it will limit FOMC operations such as interest rate hikes and delay the timing of adjustments. The Federal Reserve has established a working group to assess the role of forward guidance, and he believes that in some situations, the use of this tool should be weakened or even stopped, and decisions should rely more on real-time economic data.
Bitcoin coils near $76.5K as US stocks rebound from Fed rate hike
Bitcoin made modest daily gains as US stocks saw upside in the aftermath of the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike since July 2023.
Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Swiss private bank Julius Baer predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and the dollar may weaken, thus gold prices are expected to recover lost ground.