Serenity: SemiAnalysis is accused of "building positions after shorting," and related optical communication companies have been included in the cooperative ETF.
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Serenity: Prices of upstream materials for AI optical interconnects are expected to continue to rise.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Serenity published an article stating that a recent research report from Nomura Securities points out that with the continued surge in AI infrastructure construction, the upstream photonics materials supply chain is facing the dual pressures of surging demand and tightening supply. AXTI and IQE are among the main beneficiaries in the indium phosphide (InP) industry chain. In terms of price, the price of 2-inch InP substrates is expected to rise by 42% to 76%, and 3-inch InP substrates by approximately 78%; the price of 2-inch EML epitaxial wafers is expected to rise by 50% to 75%, and the price of 3-inch CW epitaxial wafers will also increase by more than 40%. The report believes that the continued expansion of AI data centers by hyperscale cloud service providers is driving the entire optical communication industry chain into a phase of tight supply and demand. Bottlenecks have appeared in all aspects, from material prices and end-user demand to supply capacity. Serenity stated that as the demand for AI optical interconnects continues to be released in the coming years, the price of upstream photonics materials will continue to rise, similar to the price increase cycle previously experienced by SanDisk. Whether this prediction is accurate remains to be seen, as the demand for AI continues to rise over the next two years.
Serenity responds to the sharp drop in CPO stocks: The market has overreacted; the value of related stocks is supported by real income.
BlockBeats reported on July 3rd that Serenity responded to the recent collective decline in photonics stocks, stating that the previously mentioned CPO stocks have actual revenue support, contrasting sharply with the near-zero revenue of quantum computing. Among them, LITE capacity is sold out until 2029, and AAOI is entering the market with its US-made independent CW capacity, projecting quarterly revenue of $1.4 billion by the first half of 2027, yet its current market capitalization is a ridiculously low $9.3 billion. Serenity reiterated its bullish outlook on the optical module market, predicting that TAM will grow ninefold over the next two years, reaching $154 billion (according to a GS report), especially with dollar-denominated content expanding/upgrading by 16x/45x. "Despite short-term volatility, supply and demand fundamentals will drive stock prices back to normal."
Serenity: XFAB upgraded to "Buy"; AI and photonic chips may unlock long-term growth potential.
BlockBeats reported on July 6th that Serenity reposted Kelper's latest research report, upgrading semiconductor foundry XFAB's rating to "Buy." The report argues that Melexis demand is continuously improving, and the demand for silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN), and photonic chips driven by AI is expected to offset cyclical fluctuations in the automotive industry. Furthermore, the report notes that specialized foundries, scarce in the West, are receiving higher valuation premiums. Data shows that XFAB's current 2027 EV/EBITDA is only 4.8x, significantly lower than the industry median of 14.5x. Serenity stated that this indicates XFAB's core fundamentals are improving, but they are more optimistic about the growth potential of photonic chips, which the market has not yet fully priced in. They pointed out that XFAB leads the EU's PhotonixFAB project, which aims to build a European silicon photonics industry chain and promote the large-scale manufacturing of photonic chips. In the future, XFAB is expected to benefit from the growth in data center optical communication demand driven by AI giants such as Nvidia. However, since related commercial orders have not yet been implemented on a large scale, traditional valuation models still cannot reflect this long-term growth logic.
Is SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq poised for a short squeeze? However, of the eight whale that have recently established positions, only one remains bullish.
According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that SpaceX is only 6 days away from its official inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th. Ahead of this positive development, the open interest in SpaceX on the Hyperliquid platform reached $186 million, with 24-hour trading volume increasing to $260 million. SPCX is currently trading at $173, up 6% in the last 24 hours, continuing its strong pre-market performance. Large funds that recently completed their initial positions have not significantly followed this positive news. Of the eight whale who opened new positions and have held them to date, only one has opened a long position. This address happens to be the only profitable whale recently, currently long of 20,000 units of SPCX with 8x leverage, worth approximately $3.46 million, at an average price of $160.5. As the stock price rose, the address's unrealized profit reached $255,000 (+38.9%). Its average holding time is only about 12 hours, but this time it has held a long position for nearly 2 days. It usually completes its position building and betting on the direction before earnings reports and related positive news. Its recent main holdings cover DRAM, NVDA and MRVL. In the overall on-chain holdings, the average price at which large holders established long positions was $183.77, and most of these long positions are still in a state of deep loss. The average price at which short positions were established was $171. Currently, the stock price has risen above the short position establishment line, which means that short positions that were previously established or had previously made a profit are also under pressure and most have turned to losses. - HyperInsight Bot is now live. Add @HyperInsightBot to the Telegram community and set it as an administrator (message sending permission required) to automatically sync on-chain information.
Guangdong: Support Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan and other cities to take the lead in building high-value-added intelligent computing centers.
According to Mars Finance, 11 departments, including the Guangdong Provincial Government Service and Data Management Bureau, recently issued the "Guangdong Provincial Action Plan for Promoting the Digital Transformation of Cities and Building Smart Cities," which mentions optimizing the layout of urban computing networks. Addressing the development needs of megacities and urban clusters, the plan calls for a comprehensive planning of urban computing center systems, constructing a cloud-edge-device collaborative computing network. It also emphasizes accelerating the construction of an all-optical network foundation for cities, creating a high-quality computing capacity network capable of "millisecond-level computation," achieving millisecond interconnection of computing centers, millisecond-level access to computing services, and millisecond-level response to computing applications. The plan supports Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, and Dongguan in taking the lead in building high-value-added intelligent computing centers, flexibly deploying edge computing nodes to meet the high-bandwidth, low-latency, and high-reliability computing power requirements of scenarios such as low-altitude economy, autonomous driving, and the industrial internet. (Cailian Press)
Serenity: SIVE has the potential to grow into the next LITE.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Serenity published an article expressing its long-term optimism about Swedish optical company Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), believing it has the potential to become "the next Lumentum (LITE)." In recent months, Sivers has made several key advancements in the AI optical interconnect field, including collaborating with O-Net to advance ELS to mass production, supporting the mass production of Jabil (JBL) 1.6T LRO optical modules, partnering with GlobalFoundries (GFS) to develop continuous wave (CW) lasers for hyperscale cloud vendors, and entering the CPO (co-packaged optics) ecosystem with NVIDIA NVLink, AMD, Amazon, Alchip, and GUC through Ayar Labs. Furthermore, the company is collaborating with Lightium to develop TFLN+CW lasers and is expected to support optical interconnect solutions from Marvell Celestial, Lightelligence, and Lightmatter, while continuing to expand its customer base for undisclosed pluggable optical modules. A recent TrendForce report on cloud vendors like AMD actively securing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for CW lasers further validates the long-term demand prospects for independent CW laser suppliers. Serenity stated that as AI data center construction continues, various optical interconnect architectures, including 1.6T optical modules, LRO, NPO, and CPO, will develop in parallel over the next few years, providing Sivers with sustained revenue growth opportunities. The company recently completed an oversubscribed institutional financing round, with funds expected to be used to expand laser production capacity and strengthen wafer foundry partnerships. It also plans to complete its Nasdaq listing in the coming quarters to provide financing support for subsequent acquisitions. Currently, the market is overly focused on the commercialization pace of CPO, neglecting the fact that laser products can be widely used in various architectures such as pluggable optical modules, NPO, and CPO. With 1.6T optical modules entering mass production in the second half of 2026, CPO demand accelerating further in 2027, and the Nasdaq listing facilitating the implementation of its acquisition strategy, Sivers is expected to usher in a new round of performance and valuation improvements.