Opinion: Warsh's concise style makes the Fed's June meeting minutes even more important.
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Opinion: Warsh should publicly resist Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and uphold the central bank's independence.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Levin published an article stating that US President Trump and his allies are continuously pushing to influence Federal Reserve decisions through personnel changes, including attempting to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook and interfering in the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, in order to expand the influence of White House supporters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Levin believes that Kevin Warsh, considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, should publicly oppose White House interference, support Jerome Powell and Cook to complete their terms, and demand that the White House withdraw from the selection process for regional Fed presidents; otherwise, his future credibility in leading the Fed and his influence within the committee will be weakened. The Fed's independence is key to maintaining stable inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy; continued political interference could damage the stability of the US macroeconomy.
Market Outlook for Next Week: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes Released, Market Focuses on Interest Rate Hike Path and Gold Price Movement
Mars Finance reports that on July 5th, global markets will see the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes, and several important economic data releases next week. The market will focus on the Fed's latest assessment of inflation and interest rate paths, as well as US services PMI and initial jobless claims data. Gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term. Key points to watch include: • Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Released early Thursday morning Beijing time, the market hopes to glean more details about the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chairman Warsh to determine if there is still room for rate hikes by the end of the year. The interest rate market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December and believes there is a certain probability of an earlier move in October. • Fed Officials' Speeches: Officials such as Williams, Logan, and Waller will deliver speeches, and the market will focus on whether they will adjust their hawkish stance due to recent weak non-farm payroll data. • European Central Bank Minutes: Released on Thursday, investors will focus on the European Central Bank's latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and subsequent monetary policy. * **Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision:** The market expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike; attention will be focused on whether it delivers on its previous hawkish guidance. * **Important Economic Data:** Data including the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global Services PMI, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims will be released successively, providing new clues for the market to assess the US economic and interest rate outlook. * **Gold Outlook:** HSBC believes that with real interest rates remaining high and the US dollar relatively strong, gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term, but central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global trend of de-dollarization still support its medium- to long-term upward trend. * **Earnings Season Begins:** PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi's, and other companies will be among the first to release their second-quarter results. The market will focus on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year earnings guidance, serving as a warm-up for the mid-July bank earnings season.
Crypto Market Preview This Week: Fed Meeting Minutes to be Released, SpaceX to be Included in Nasdaq 100 Index
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, the crypto market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US economic data, and several crypto industry events this week. The macro environment and on-chain dynamics may jointly influence the price movements of digital assets. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 9th (Beijing time), with the market hoping to use this information to determine the future path of interest rates. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, and China's June CPI data will also be released successively. On the industry front, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming the fourth index component stock to hold Bitcoin, following Tesla, Strategy, and Mercado Libre. Data shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 18,712 BTC, and its inclusion in the index is expected to benefit from the passive allocation demand of index funds. In addition, American Bitcoin (ABTC), a US mining company, will resume trading after completing a 1:15 reverse stock split to avoid delisting from Nasdaq; Berachain will complete its PoL Next upgrade on July 7. Regarding on-chain governance, ENS DAO, Frax DAO, Nexus Mutual DAO, and Arbitrum DAO will all conclude voting on multiple governance proposals this week. Regarding token unlocking, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.2% of its circulating supply on July 6, worth approximately $30.39 million; RAIN will unlock approximately 7.64% of its circulating supply on July 11, worth approximately $787 million; and PUMP will unlock approximately 29.12% of its circulating supply on July 12, worth approximately $130 million. Besides macroeconomic data, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the continued weakening of the yen are also worth noting. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a strong negative correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, with the depreciation of the yen often accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin prices.
Trump stated that Warsh "must do what he has to do" and will continue to push for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, following the release of the US June non-farm payroll report last night, US President Trump gave an interview and refused to offer advice to Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, stating that the new chairman "must do what he has to do." Trump indicated that Warsh has a potentially hostile board, and unfortunately, this board may be trying to do the wrong things. Trump also stated that he will continue to push for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by "winning the lawsuit."
Warsh appoints Samantha Schwab, a senior aide to Bessant, as an advisor to the Federal Reserve.
Odaily Odaily reports that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is expanding his advisory team, with the latest appointment including Samantha Schwab, a senior aide to Treasury Secretary Bessenter, joining the Fed as an advisor. Schwab has served as Bessenter's deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department since January 2025 and previously served in the White House during Trump's first presidential term. Schwab comes from a financial family and is the granddaughter of Charles Schwab, founder of Charles Schwab's firm. The specific date for her appointment has not yet been determined. This appointment has sparked discussions about a closer relationship between the Fed and the Treasury, especially given Warsh's weekly meetings with Bessenter, raising concerns about whether the central bank's independence will be affected.
Warsh declined to comment on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in July.
Mars Finance reports that on July 1st, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh avoided questions about the possibility of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting. "I hope that when we meet in four weeks, we'll have a full 'family debate,'" he said. "When we meet behind closed doors, we'll have a heated debate. But beyond that, I have no further information to share." Warsh made these remarks at the European Central Bank's annual policy symposium in Sintra, Portugal; this was his first public appearance since attending a Fed press conference last month. Since then, investors have begun to anticipate more rate hikes from the Fed, but the market currently estimates less than a 50% chance of a rate hike this month. (Jinshi)