Citigroup: The case for raising interest rates has disappeared; the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts in October.
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Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Swiss private bank Julius Baer predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and the dollar may weaken, thus gold prices are expected to recover lost ground.
The credibility of US employment data is being questioned; the non-farm payrolls "lifeline": if the increase is below 150,000, the Fed is almost certain not to raise interest rates.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, with the June non-farm payroll report about to be released (moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday), the market is showing significant disagreement regarding the accuracy of current US employment data. From March to May this year, the US averaged 188,000 new jobs per month, marking the strongest hiring cycle in three years. However, industry insiders worry that this figure may be inflated: one-off factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary work related to the World Cup have pushed up the data, and the spring and summer employment trend often shows a "peak followed by a decline." Analysts point out that June's new jobs need to reach or exceed Wall Street's consensus forecast of 110,000 to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If it significantly exceeds expectations by 150,000 or more, the Federal Reserve might seriously consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting this month; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed will almost certainly maintain interest rates unchanged. Other key observations include: • The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and still at a historically low level; • Recruitment is gradually diversifying across industries, moving away from the previous dominance of the healthcare sector; • Year-on-year wage growth is expected to remain around 3.5%, with no significant inflationary pressure yet. Analysts believe that although the labor market is currently recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need further verification from the June non-farm payrolls report.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: The Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates.
Odaily Odaily reports that Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Fed will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the US government finance its fiscal deficit. He believes it is reasonable to consider setting an inflation target range, and that Fed Chairman Warsh is reiterating the commitment to the 2% target, favoring a range for inflation. However, adjusting the inflation target at this stage would undermine the Fed's credibility. (Jinshi)
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 47.6%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 23%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.5%.