AlphAi upgrades Polymarket's compatibility with prediction market experiences, adding AI analytics and real-time signals.
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Polymarket sued over dispute over Strategy's sale of a Bitcoin prediction market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, two plaintiffs filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, accusing it of breach of contract and deceptive conduct in a prediction market related to whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin by the end of May. According to the complaint filed on July 3rd in the New York State Supreme Court, plaintiffs William Wood and Thomas Bush named Polymarket, its CEO Shayne Coplan, Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber, and other related entities and individuals as defendants. The complaint alleges that the two plaintiffs held a "Yes" position in a binary prediction market that asked whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin holdings by May 31st. According to Strategy's Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company did sell 32 Bitcoins (BTC) between May 26th and 31st. However, the plaintiffs point out that Polymarket ultimately ruled the market "No." They stated that the platform added a clarification before settlement, effectively changing the criterion from "whether the sale was completed before May 31st" to "whether the sale was publicly confirmed before May 31st." Due to this change in criteria, although Strategy had sold Bitcoin within the deadline, the prediction market was ultimately ruled "no" on June 3rd via a UMA vote (the mechanism Polymarket uses to adjudicate disputed markets).
CFTC, US soldier accused of illegal Polymarket bet spar over interpretation of prediction markets
A judge stayed the CFTC’s civil case against a soldier who allegedly used nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, but the regulator is trying to weigh in on the criminal case.
Polymarket launches Bitcoin Lightning Network instant deposits and integrates the Spark protocol.
BlockBeats reported on July 8th that prediction market platform Polymarket announced support for instant, self-custodied deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network, powered by the Spark protocol. Compared to the previous on-chain deposit method, which required 3 to 6 block confirmations and took approximately 10 to 60 minutes, the new solution achieves near-instantaneous deposits, lowering the deposit threshold and transaction costs. According to reports, Spark performs checks for double-spending risk, fees, and Replace-by-Fee (RBF) during transaction broadcasting, achieving "zero-confirmation" deposits. It also supports on-chain, Lightning Network, and stablecoin payment channels, eliminating the need for the platform to operate its own Lightning Network nodes. Polymarket stated that this move will further improve the efficiency of Bitcoin users' fund utilization and enhance its competitiveness against rival Kalshi.
Two traders sue Polymarket over disputed market settlement results.
According to Foresight News , The Block reports that William Wood and Thomas Bush are suing Polymarket over a prediction market that predicted "no" regarding whether Strategy would sell its tokens before May 31. According to the filed complaint, the plaintiff stated that Strategy clearly stated in its 8-K filing that the company sold 32 bitcoins between May 26 and 31, but Polymarket added a rule clause requiring Strategy to publicly confirm this by May 31. The plaintiffs allege that Polymarket altered the market terms after the transaction was resolved, violating the platform's core commitment to rules-based, objective, and fair dealing. They are demanding that Polymarket compensate the plaintiffs for their profits if the market outcome had been "yes," as well as litigation costs.
The probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger before the end of September has dropped to 10% on Polymarket, and the stock has fallen 30% in the past 24 hours.
According to data from Polymarket's prediction market tool, the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing their merger by...? has decreased to 10% (a 30% drop in 24 hours) compared to the previous prediction of September 30, 2026; the probability of announcing the merger within the year, before December 31, 2026, has decreased to 25% (an 18% drop in 24 hours). Previously, it was reported that SpaceX would be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Morgan Stanley Joins NEXTPredict as Prediction Markets Bet on 'More Institutional' Play
The bulk of prediction market trades are still sports bets, while valuations are predicated on rising institutional interest.