Bitunix Analyst: The Real Test for Risk Assets Comes from Capital, Not War
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Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
Nasdaq makes special arrangements for SpaceX: $42 billion in passive funds were invested; the real test will be the unlocking of the shares on August 6.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, fund managers tracking the Nasdaq 100 index will complete a mandatory rebalancing after the market closes on Tuesday, with approximately $4.3 billion passively buying SpaceX (SPCX) shares. Tens of millions of US investors holding Nasdaq funds in 401(k), IRA, or regular accounts will become SpaceX shareholders "passively" without their knowledge. Starting July 7th, SpaceX will officially become a Nasdaq 100 component stock—the fastest company to be added to a major US index in history, with related funds holding approximately 0.5% to 0.7% of the index. Previously, Nasdaq required new stocks to be listed for at least three months and have at least 10% public shareholding before inclusion in the index. However, the new rules that took effect on May 1st significantly lowered the threshold—as long as the market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing component stocks, only 15 trading days and 5 days' advance notice are required for "fast inclusion." This rule was implemented exactly six weeks before SpaceX's IPO on June 12th. Critics argue that this window is "too short to complete price discovery," even going so far as to call it "the most shameless manipulation of major indices," benefiting the company, existing shareholders, and the exchange, while passive fund holders are forced to bear the price costs. SpaceX's publicly traded shares account for only 3% to 5%, and with the float multiplier, passive buying far exceeds the actual float's capacity. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 remains unchanged, maintaining its existing 12-month observation period and four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability requirements. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter and a projected loss of $4.94 billion for the full year of 2025, meaning it may not meet the S&P inclusion criteria until mid-2027 at the earliest. Analysts point out that the real test will come on August 6th—when the company releases its first quarterly earnings report, and approximately 20% of insider shares will be released from lock-up, potentially reversing the supply-demand balance due to the disappearance of passive buying and potential selling pressure.
The US debt of $39 trillion has raised long-term concerns, with analysts saying the risk of an unsustainable fiscal path is rising.
According to Mars Finance, as of July 5th, the US national debt had risen to approximately $39 trillion, equivalent to the total US GDP, with annual interest payments reaching about $1 trillion, exceeding the defense budget. The US national debt system can be traced back to the debt consolidation reforms promoted by Alexander Hamilton in 1790, when the federal government assumed the wartime debts of the states and promised full repayment, thus establishing the US credit system and laying the foundation for the global status of the dollar and US Treasury bonds. Today, US Treasury bonds are considered one of the core assets of the global financial system, supporting the US dollar's reserve currency status and being widely held by central banks and financial institutions worldwide. However, as the debt continues to expand, market concerns about long-term sustainability are intensifying. According to the Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) at the University of Pennsylvania, when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds approximately 210%, the fiscal system may face unsustainable risks. Currently, this ratio in the US is about 100%, and the Congressional Budget Office projects it could rise to 175% by 2056. Analysts believe that with rising healthcare spending and a continuously expanding fiscal deficit, this risk threshold may arrive earlier than expected, and the long-term stability of the debt structure is facing more stringent market and policy tests.
Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, global markets were focused on the renewed deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The US not only expanded its military strikes against Iran but also revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, further escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged by approximately 5%, reflecting the market's re-inflation of energy supply uncertainty. The situation is no longer just a simple military conflict; rather, it involves a simultaneous increase in risks to energy transportation and the global supply chain. Iran continues to strengthen its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military has raised the local shipping threat level to "serious," indicating that global energy transportation remains highly volatile. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's plan to expand its Red Sea oil pipeline shows that major oil-producing countries have already planned alternative transportation routes to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that lower energy prices have helped improve short-term inflation, but policy remains in an appropriate position. He did not provide clear guidance on future interest rate direction, and the Fed will continue to adjust policy based on economic data. It is worth noting that the risks in the US technology sector have also increased simultaneously. Nasdaq 100 volatility has reached a two-decade high, with AI-related trading remaining highly concentrated. Some Wall Street institutions have begun using options for hedging and are gradually shifting funds towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting profit-taking pressure on highly valued tech stocks. In the crypto market, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Short-term market liquidity is mainly concentrated in four key liquidation zones: $62,500 and $60,000 on the downside, and $64,300 and $67,700 on the upside. With continued macroeconomic disruptions, prices may still see liquidity liquidation around highly leveraged positions, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high. The market will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.
Multiple factors drove a correction in South Korean stocks: profit-taking by Samsung and SK Hynix, collective withdrawal of foreign capital, and amplified concerns about oversupply risks and fundamentals.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, based on Bitget market data, the South Korean stock market has been experiencing a continuous downward correction recently. On July 2nd, the KOSPI index once plummeted by nearly 8%, triggering a trading halt, with SK Hynix falling by over 14% and Samsung by over 9%. On July 3rd, it fell by over 3% in the morning session before rebounding sharply. Today, the South Korean stock market continued its downward trend, falling by over 3% at one point, driven by multiple factors: Samsung and SK Hynix have excessively high weightings, leading to concentrated profit-taking. Currently, the weighting of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two core AI memory stocks, in the KOSPI has risen to approximately 50%, meaning that fluctuations in the memory sector can cause significant volatility in the entire South Korean index. After a continuous surge in recent months, concentrated profit-taking has become the driving force behind the recent natural correction. US stock market correction sentiment spills over. In the global market, the recent collective correction in US semiconductor, memory chip, and optical communication sectors has triggered a global sell-off in technology stocks. Market concerns include the sustainability of AI capital expenditure and overvaluation. South Korean stocks are highly sensitive to sentiment in the US tech sector and are similarly affected by spillover effects from US market sentiment. The structural fragility of the South Korean market amplifies the decline. The assets of 2x leveraged products tracking Samsung and SK Hynix are enormous, far exceeding the average daily trading volume of the stocks themselves. Forced rebalancing during declines further fuels selling and exacerbates the fall. The high leverage of retail investors combined with margin trading creates a chain reaction, causing frequent extreme volatility in the South Korean stock market. Foreign capital is fleeing South Korea. Recently, foreign investors in South Korea net sold 7.7 trillion won (approximately US$4.98 billion) worth of KOSPI shares on Monday, setting a record for the largest single-day sell-off. Combined with factors such as pressure on the won's exchange rate, this further undermines foreign investor confidence. Oversupply risks raise fundamental concerns. Samsung and SK Hynix plan massive investments in new memory chip factories, totaling tens of billions of dollars. The market worries that a significant increase in future capacity will put downward pressure on memory prices. Meanwhile, demand from major customers such as Nvidia for higher-stack HBM chips has slowed, shaking market confidence in the sustainability of the "AI supercycle."
Analysts: Stablecoin market capitalization shrinks by over $3 billion per month, Bitcoin's rebound lacks "fuel" support.
PANews reported on July 8th that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that since mid-May, the stablecoin market has shifted from a source of liquidity to a source of liquidity depletion. The 30-day average inflow into stablecoin exchanges has fallen from $3.2 billion to $2.65 billion, 31% lower than the annual average of $3.86 billion; the combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC is shrinking at a rate exceeding $3 billion per month. The analyst points out that Bitcoin's 21% drop since mid-May is a direct consequence of this "fuel" shortage. Currently, the market is losing liquidity on two levels simultaneously: fewer new stablecoins are flowing into exchanges, and the dollar base itself is contracting. Improvement requires a reversal of both indicators—the 30-day average inflow returning above the annual average, and the monthly change in market capitalization returning to positive territory.