Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
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The US revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, leaving approximately 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded at sea.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, Bloomberg cited Vortexa data, after the US revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, approximately 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil are currently stranded at sea, with most tankers anchored in the Persian Gulf and Asian waters, and no buyers have yet been found. Previously, the US had allowed Iran to sell crude oil within 60 days without sanctions, but this week revoked the waivers citing Iran's attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a significant amount of already loaded crude oil facing sales difficulties. Market analysts stated that Iranian crude oil exports are once again under pressure due to factors such as sudden changes in US policy, European and American sanctions, and insurance restrictions. Apart from China, no Asian refineries have publicly purchased Iranian crude oil, and industry insiders expect Iran may need to further increase discounts to attract overseas buyers.
Less than 20 days after the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation has changed again: the US has intensified its attacks on Iran, revoked oil waivers, and increased the scale of its strikes fivefold.
PANews reported on July 8 that, according to Jinshi News, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked a waiver allowing it to sell oil globally. This move further jeopardizes the peace agreement between the two countries following frequent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command issued a statement on the X platform stating that this "powerful strike" was intended to "impose a heavy price on attacks and harassment of merchant ships carrying innocent civilians in international waters," and that Iran's aggression was "unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement." According to the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7, the U.S. revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, with the remaining transactions allowed to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17.
Iraqi Revolutionary Guard takes action against oil tanker in waters off the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to CCTV, Odaily Odaily reports that on the 7th local time, Iranian sources stated that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took action against an oil tanker in the waters off the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. The report also stated that, according to satellite monitoring data, US air power was providing air cover in the relevant waters when the tanker was intercepted.
Citigroup: Oil prices could fall to $60 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz crisis subsides.
According to Odaily Odaily, Citigroup stated that Brent crude oil prices could fall to $60 per barrel by the end of the year as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz gradually eases, further exacerbating pessimistic expectations for the global oil market. Citigroup analyst Francesco Martoccia noted in a report: "With the receding crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, fundamentals are rapidly recovering. Shipping traffic is returning to normal, the spot crude oil market is weakening significantly, and inventory declines are far less than expected." Analysts say the initial phase "is expected to be volatile, as shipping routes need to return to normal, the insurance market needs to adjust, and remaining logistical bottlenecks need to be gradually eliminated." They also point out that "the resumption of orderly navigation patterns and the increase in traffic volume indicate that commercial operators increasingly believe the risk environment is manageable, rather than unbearable." (Jinshi)
Iranian Armed Forces: US Interference in the Strait of Hormuz Will Provoke Retaliation
According to a Odaily by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on the 2nd, the Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces, Hatam Anbia, issued a statement that day saying that the Iranian Armed Forces will respond "resolutely and swiftly" to any interference by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. The statement said that the Strait of Hormuz is not a place for the United States to act recklessly. The security and stability of this crucial waterway is a "red line" for the Iranian armed forces. The statement indicated that all oil tankers and merchant ships wishing to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz must follow the routes designated by Iran. Any violation of these routes, any deviation from them, or any disregard for navigation regulations will be met with a response from the Iranian armed forces and will endanger the safety of the offending vessels. (Xinhua)
Bitunix Analyst: With policy and geopolitical variables intertwined, global markets await further confirmation signals.
According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, global markets continued to digest the impact of the Middle East situation, US policy, and signals from central banks around the world. The latest US Supreme Court ruling expanded the president's authority to dismiss officials of certain federal agencies, but simultaneously prevented the removal of Federal Reserve governors, keeping the market focused on the Fed's policy independence. On the other hand, US strategic petroleum reserves fell to their lowest level since 1983, while South Korea announced plans to build a large-scale AI data center, reflecting continued global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Although the ceasefire framework in the Middle East remains in place, uncertainty persists. Iran stated that it has no plans to engage in formal negotiations with the US in the near future, prioritizing the implementation of the memorandum of understanding and continuing to strengthen its control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump stated that US and Iranian representatives would meet in Doha, highlighting a discrepancy in public statements regarding the progress of negotiations. The market is also focused on persistently high shipping insurance premiums, restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and global energy restocking demand, indicating that even with oil prices falling to around $70, risks to the energy supply chain have not been completely eliminated. Regarding central bank policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that further interest rate hikes could be necessary if needed. However, the market believes that falling oil prices and an economic slowdown may reduce the likelihood of further tightening. On the other hand, the yen broke below a key exchange rate range in which the Japanese government intervened in 2024, putting renewed pressure on the government to intervene in the foreign exchange market. This also reflects the continued impact of high interest rates and a strong US dollar on capital flows in major global economies. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $58,060 and $61,931, with overall market sentiment remaining cautious. Given the unclear global policy signals, the continued geopolitical influence on the energy market, and the divergent policy paths among major central banks, short-term risk appetite remains easily driven by macroeconomic events. The market will continue to focus on developments in the US-Iran situation, central bank policy moves, and any new changes in the global liquidity environment. These factors will remain key considerations influencing the volatility of risk assets.