The US revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, leaving approximately 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded at sea.
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Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, global markets were focused on the renewed deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The US not only expanded its military strikes against Iran but also revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, further escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged by approximately 5%, reflecting the market's re-inflation of energy supply uncertainty. The situation is no longer just a simple military conflict; rather, it involves a simultaneous increase in risks to energy transportation and the global supply chain. Iran continues to strengthen its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military has raised the local shipping threat level to "serious," indicating that global energy transportation remains highly volatile. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's plan to expand its Red Sea oil pipeline shows that major oil-producing countries have already planned alternative transportation routes to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that lower energy prices have helped improve short-term inflation, but policy remains in an appropriate position. He did not provide clear guidance on future interest rate direction, and the Fed will continue to adjust policy based on economic data. It is worth noting that the risks in the US technology sector have also increased simultaneously. Nasdaq 100 volatility has reached a two-decade high, with AI-related trading remaining highly concentrated. Some Wall Street institutions have begun using options for hedging and are gradually shifting funds towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting profit-taking pressure on highly valued tech stocks. In the crypto market, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Short-term market liquidity is mainly concentrated in four key liquidation zones: $62,500 and $60,000 on the downside, and $64,300 and $67,700 on the upside. With continued macroeconomic disruptions, prices may still see liquidity liquidation around highly leveraged positions, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high. The market will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.
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Less than 20 days after the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation has changed again: the US has intensified its attacks on Iran, revoked oil waivers, and increased the scale of its strikes fivefold.
PANews reported on July 8 that, according to Jinshi News, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked a waiver allowing it to sell oil globally. This move further jeopardizes the peace agreement between the two countries following frequent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command issued a statement on the X platform stating that this "powerful strike" was intended to "impose a heavy price on attacks and harassment of merchant ships carrying innocent civilians in international waters," and that Iran's aggression was "unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement." According to the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7, the U.S. revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, with the remaining transactions allowed to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17.
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One hour before Trump's statement, a short position of 21 million (long oil, short Nasdaq) saw significant profits after investors added to their short positions.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Hyperinsight monitoring showed that an address starting with 0xec4 had already established a long position in Brent crude oil with 20x leverage two days prior. Then, approximately one hour before Trump's Middle East statements triggered a market surge, a short position in the Nasdaq 100 was significantly increased with 30x leverage. Subsequently, oil prices jumped, and risk assets came under pressure, leading to profit-taking on both sides. As of press time, the two highly leveraged positions at this address had a combined unrealized profit of approximately $510,000. The return on the Brent crude oil long position reached 189%, and the return on the Nasdaq 100 short position reached 37%. The entry times were as follows: July 6th afternoon: Brent crude oil long position established with 20x leverage; July 7th evening: Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) opened with a base position of approximately 200 contracts with 30x leverage; This afternoon (approximately 1 hour before the statement): Significantly increased short positions, pushing the XYZ100 short position to 600 contracts, valued at approximately $17.304 million, completing the setup just before the news was released. On the news front, Trump's latest statement indicated that the temporary ceasefire arrangements between the US and Iran may have ended, and the market re-priced in Middle East geopolitical risk premiums. Reports indicate that crude oil futures jumped approximately 5% after the statement. Current core positions: Brent crude oil (BRENTOIL) long positions: 50,000 contracts, approximately $3.915 million, average price $71.8645, liquidation price $37.26, unrealized profit approximately $322,000; Nasdaq 100 mapped contract (XYZ100) short positions: 600 contracts, approximately $17.304 million, average price $29,108.44, liquidation price $32,119.96, unrealized profit approximately $161,000.