Goldman Sachs: Expects South Korea's KOSPI index to reach 12,000 points in the next 12 months.
Related
Goldman Sachs: South Korean stocks are expected to see a broad-based rally in the second half of the year; maintains KOSPI target of 12,000 points.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more sectors including energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities. Regarding market concerns about a bubble in the South Korean stock market, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in margin balances is mainly due to the growth of leveraged ETF net asset value, rather than new borrowing by investors. South Korean residents' assets are still mainly in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows. Goldman Sachs predicts that South Korean companies' overall net profit will increase by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026 and will maintain a growth rate of approximately 35% in 2027. It maintains its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), representing an upside of over 20% from current levels, but expects increased market volatility in the future.
Goldman Sachs injects a strong boost into South Korean stocks: another 20% rise in the second half of the year! Market leverage risk is overestimated, and opportunities will spread to six main themes.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released its second-half strategy framework for the South Korean stock market, maintaining its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI index, representing over 20% upside from current levels. The core support comes from a 320% year-on-year earnings growth forecast and a forward P/E ratio of only 6.65. This indicator is 2.7 standard deviations below its historical average, the lowest since 2009. In the first half of the year, South Korean stocks led Asia with a 92% gain, but this growth was primarily driven by upward revisions to earnings rather than valuation expansion: forward EPS was revised upwards by nearly 200%, while the forward P/E ratio actually compressed slightly. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix contributed nearly 90% of the index's gains, with their combined market capitalization weight rising to 56% and their earnings weight reaching 72%. Goldman Sachs believes this concentration reflects earnings more accurately than a bubble, but market breadth has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, and continued gains in the second half of the year will likely lead to increased volatility. Regarding retail investor concerns, Goldman Sachs points out that leverage levels are overvalued. The growth in leveraged ETF size is primarily driven by asset appreciation rather than new leveraged funds. The margin loan-to-deposit ratio is actually declining, indicating that retail investors still hold substantial cash reserves and their asset allocation remains heavily focused on real estate. Goldman Sachs believes that opportunities in the Korean stock market in the second half of the year will expand from memory chips to six main themes: the industrial sector (accelerated defense orders, unmet demand for VLCC replacements), robotics and physical AI (Korea's auto parts ecosystem is expected to become a core supplier of humanoid robots), batteries and power infrastructure (driven by data center energy storage demand), beneficiaries of corporate governance reforms (multiple regulations implemented since July, with over 70% of listed companies having a PBR below 1), reflation trading (semiconductor profit spillover effects driving upward revisions to GDP and extending the interest rate hike cycle), and the semiconductor capital expenditure supply chain (the government plans to invest 800 trillion won in three major projects). Goldman Sachs also warns of three risks: seasonal weakness in the third quarter, technical correction pressure from a significant deviation of the index from the moving average, and amplified volatility due to hedging operations by leveraged ETF market makers. The combination of earnings growth and low valuations makes South Korea the market with the lowest PEG ratio in Asia, and the current valuation misalignment provides significant room for stock selection in the second half of the year.
South Korea's KOSPI index fell below 7200 points, down more than 6% on the day.
PANews reported on July 8 that, according to Jinshi, the South Korean KOSPI index fell below 7200 points, down more than 6% on the day.
South Korea's KOSPI index turned positive, with SK Hynix rising over 2%.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, based on Bitget market data, the South Korean KOSPI index turned positive, after initially falling nearly 4%. SK Hynix rose over 2%, while Samsung Electronics narrowed its losses to 1%. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, US storage concept stocks opened lower but rallied in overnight trading, with SanDisk rising over 3%, and Micron Technology and Western Digital rising over 1%.
The South Korean KOSPI index opened down 232.32 points, a drop of 3.03%.
According to ChainCatcher, Gate data shows that the South Korean KOSPI index opened down 232.32 points on Wednesday, July 8th, a drop of 3.03%, to 7,423.99 points. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both fell by 4%.
South Korea's KOSPI index fell further to 7%.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, the South Korean KOSPI index continued its decline, falling 7% to 7487.25 points. Samsung and SK Hynix both fell nearly 9%. Furthermore, Southern's double- long in Samsung Electronics (07747) fell over 20%, and Southern's double- long position in SK Hynix (07709) fell over 19%.