Goldman Sachs injects a strong boost into South Korean stocks: another 20% rise in the second half of the year! Market leverage risk is overestimated, and opportunities will spread to six main themes.
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Goldman Sachs: South Korean stocks are expected to see a broad-based rally in the second half of the year; maintains KOSPI target of 12,000 points.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more sectors including energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities. Regarding market concerns about a bubble in the South Korean stock market, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in margin balances is mainly due to the growth of leveraged ETF net asset value, rather than new borrowing by investors. South Korean residents' assets are still mainly in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows. Goldman Sachs predicts that South Korean companies' overall net profit will increase by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026 and will maintain a growth rate of approximately 35% in 2027. It maintains its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), representing an upside of over 20% from current levels, but expects increased market volatility in the future.
Goldman Sachs: Expects South Korea's KOSPI index to reach 12,000 points in the next 12 months.
According to Odaily Odaily, Goldman Sachs predicts that the South Korean KOSPI index will reach 12,000 points within the next 12 months, representing an increase of more than 20% from current levels. However, Goldman Sachs also warns that this upward trend may be "winding." In the market, tech stocks are poised for a strong start to the week, while the South Korean memory chip giant will once again test the waters of artificial intelligence trading. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, and Dow futures were essentially flat. Samsung Electronics will report earnings on Tuesday; the chipmaker's stock has risen 165% this year, and its financial performance will be closely watched. A few days later, SK Hynix will also proceed with its $29 billion U.S. IPO.
South Korean stocks plunge 20%, nearing a bear market; the AI boom faces the awkward situation of "the more disastrous the earnings, the steeper the decline."
According to BlockBeats, on Wednesday afternoon, July 8th, South Korean stocks extended their losses as investors reassessed the outlook for AI demand. The KOSPI index fell by more than 6% at one point, breaking below 7200 points, and has cumulatively fallen by more than 20% from its all-time high last month, poised to enter technical bear market territory. Memory chip maker SK Hynix fell by as much as 5%, and Samsung Electronics fell by 6.9%. The Korea Exchange initiated a temporary trading halt on the KOSPI index, suspending algorithmic trading. South Korean stocks were among the strongest performing markets globally this year, but their performance is highly dependent on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, amplifying volatility when sector sentiment weakens. Even with Samsung Electronics announcing a 19-fold surge in quarterly profits earlier this week, chip stocks continued to be under pressure. Jordan Klein, a TMT sector expert at Mizuho Securities, stated that investors overreacted to Samsung's preliminary second-quarter results. He believes this sell-off in semiconductor stocks is more a sign of waning momentum than a deterioration in fundamentals. Klein stated that excluding one-off bonus expenses, Samsung's operating profit actually significantly exceeded expectations, with its storage business implied operating margin potentially exceeding 80%. He indicated that Samsung's single-quarter operating profit has already surpassed the total of the past three years, and reacting to Samsung's stock price based solely on preliminary results is "extremely short-sighted." Meanwhile, an AI trading rotation occurred in Asian markets. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks rose, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising as much as 3.4%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 5% intraday, Alibaba rising over 8%, and Tencent rising over 3%. Market analysts believe that funds are flowing from crowded trades focused on AI infrastructure to markets with lower valuations and more value-oriented characteristics. Reuters' report on DeepSeek's self-developed chip and The Information's report on Zhipu AI considering designing its own AI chip further fueled this rotation. (Jinshi)
Goldman Sachs: Buy on dips in chip stocks, but avoid "buying a basket of chips" again.
According to Mars Finance, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report on July 7th that semiconductor stocks still present investment opportunities after the recent pullback, but AI chip trading has entered a more selective phase, and investors should no longer simply buy the entire sector. The bank pointed out that the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen by over 80% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. This strong performance has raised the bar for subsequent earnings realization and made the risk-reward ratio more differentiated ahead of the Q2 earnings season. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about certain sub-sectors, including CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment. Goldman Sachs believes these areas will benefit more directly from the expansion of AI infrastructure and have relatively higher demand visibility. In terms of individual stocks, Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned AMD and Applied Materials. AMD benefits from server CPU and AI-related demand, while Applied Materials benefits from advanced process technology and memory capital expenditure. However, Goldman Sachs is more cautious about the mobile phone supply chain and some semiconductor companies with high valuations or weak demand.
South Korean beauty and retail stocks led the market gains, and Gate.com continues to expand its investment portfolio in South Korean stocks.
According to ChainCatcher, Gate's market data shows that the South Korean stock market was active today. Manyo Factory, a cosmetics stock, reached $11.60, up 18.43%; Heung Koo Petroleum reached $6.88, up 14.72%; and IT'S HANBUL reached $7.25, up 13.51%, with several popular South Korean stocks leading the market gains. Gate has established a 24/7 trading service system covering the three core markets of US, Hong Kong, and South Korea, supporting over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs, over 1,500 Hong Kong stocks, and over 1,000 South Korean stocks, totaling over 12,500 stocks and ETFs globally. Users can participate in global stock investment through their Gate unified account using USDT, supporting fractional share transactions starting from as low as 0.01 shares, and enjoying stock dividend rights. The platform also supports cross-brokerage transfers for US and Hong Kong stocks, as well as corporate actions such as stock splits and consolidations, further optimizing the stock investment service experience.
Analysis: South Korean stocks have plummeted more than 20% from their peak and are poised to enter a technical bear market.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Jinshi, the South Korean stock market continued its decline, with the KOSPI index falling by more than 6% intraday, accumulating a drop of over 20% since its June peak, poised to enter a technical bear market. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell by approximately 7% and 5% respectively, as investors reassess the prospects for AI demand. South Korea has been the world's best-performing stock market this year, but its over-reliance on two chipmakers makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in industry sentiment. Leveraged ETFs amplified two-way volatility, further exacerbating market fluctuations. Despite Samsung Electronics' quarterly profit surging 19-fold this week, chip stocks continued their decline, highlighting that traders are demanding more evidence to justify the exorbitant investments across the entire supply chain. Fidelity International portfolio manager Ian Samson stated, "The current increased volatility stems largely from fundamental uncertainty."