Federal Reserve's Williams: Strong investment in AI is expected to continue.
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Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, and gold prices are expected to rebound.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, Swiss private bank Julius Baer predicts that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and the dollar may weaken, thus gold prices are expected to recover lost ground.
Trump hinted that Warsh was having a difficult time at the Federal Reserve and continued his attempts to get rid of the "troublemaker."
PANews reported on July 3 that, according to Jinshi News, following the release of the latest US jobs report, US President Trump refused to advise Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh in an interview, stating that the new chairman "must do what he has to do." Trump said, "Wash has a council that is perhaps a little hostile, and unfortunately, that council may want to do the wrong things." Trump also stated that he will continue to push for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by "winning the lawsuit." Trump has long favored lowering interest rates.
Trump stated that Warsh "must do what he has to do" and will continue to push for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, following the release of the US June non-farm payroll report last night, US President Trump gave an interview and refused to offer advice to Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, stating that the new chairman "must do what he has to do." Trump indicated that Warsh has a potentially hostile board, and unfortunately, this board may be trying to do the wrong things. Trump also stated that he will continue to push for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by "winning the lawsuit."
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
Weaker-than-expected US jobs data slows expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi News, disappointing US employment data has slowed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Citigroup stated that expectations of a Middle East supply recovery have been "exaggerated," while aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose. How long this "breathing window" for industrial metals can last remains to be seen.
Bloomberg ETF analyst: US stocks are "too big to fail," and the Federal Reserve may purchase stock ETFs to rescue the market.
PANews reported on July 7th that Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, released research stating that the US stock market is gradually becoming a de facto "retirement fund" for Americans. With approximately 55% of Americans holding stocks and the "Trump Accounts" program expected to add about 28 million new investors, the link between the stock market and household wealth, pensions, and social stability is becoming increasingly close. He believes that in the next major bear market, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to purchase stock ETFs for the first time to stabilize the market, similar to its purchase of corporate bond ETFs in 2020, and the actions of the central banks of Japan and China. Balchunas believes that future political pressure will make a prolonged bear market increasingly intolerable, and the continued inflow of funds into ETFs on dips and investors' widespread expectation of government intervention also reflect this trend.