Serenity：Sivers获少量产能分配即可支撑数亿美元毛利，CPO放量或进一步打开增长空间
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Serenity notes: SIVE's US stock listing wording has been upgraded from "assessment" to "completion is imminent," indicating progress exceeding market expectations.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1st, Serenity published an article highlighting that Sivers Semiconductors subtly released a signal in its latest private placement announcement that was overlooked by most screening tools and investors—the CEO explicitly stated the company's intention to complete the Nasdaq listing process within the next few quarters. This is a substantial difference from its statement in April, when the company only mentioned "evaluating a dual listing." Now, it has upgraded to confirming an execution timeline, marking a move from the concept stage to the execution confirmation stage. This private placement will raise approximately 700 million Swedish kronor for capacity expansion, strengthening the balance sheet, and accelerating R&D, clearly paving the way for the listing. Looking back at the timeline, Sivers first announced its evaluation of a dual listing on Nasdaq New York in April of this year, subsequently upgrading its audit to PCAOB standards and postponing the release of its annual report—each step pointing towards the US capital market. Based on the "next few quarters" timeline, the listing window roughly falls between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Serenity has repeatedly emphasized SIVE's bottleneck position in the CPO and pluggable optical module laser supply chain, and this substantial progress in the listing process is seen as another milestone in realizing the benefits.
Serenity: SemiAnalysis is accused of "building positions after shorting," and related optical communication companies have been included in the cooperative ETF.
Mars Finance reported on July 5th that Serenity, citing UDN Money, stated that research firm SemiAnalysis has sparked market controversy due to a series of actions. In June, SemiAnalysis released a research report citing low yield rates for CPO (co-packaged optics) technology and potential delays in product launches, indicating a bearish outlook on the optical communication sector and causing a sharp decline in related stock prices. Subsequently, the firm partnered with Tema ETFs to launch an optical communication-themed ETF. Notably, companies like Himax Technologies and Lumentum Holdings, which SemiAnalysis heavily criticized in its "Powered Down, Lights Off" report, were included in the ETF's holdings after the sector's correction, sparking market discussion about its "bearish first, then allocation" strategy.
Serenity: Funds in China's primary market are flowing into physical AI and world models, with funding for cutting-edge models concentrating on leading companies.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, Serenity published an article stating that, based on AI investment in China's primary market, institutional funds are flowing towards embodied intelligence, physical AI, and world models. The article cites approximately $23.56 billion in funding for large-scale models/LLMs, $15.74 billion for AI infrastructure and technology layers, $13.36 billion for embodied intelligence/physical AI, $8.79 billion for AIGC applications, and $3.82 billion for autonomous driving and other Top-20 clusters. However, this figure is not entirely comparable to the aforementioned categories. Early-stage, purely basic model funding has essentially closed, with more funds flowing to established leading companies and world model companies. The article believes a similar trend may emerge in the US market, with funds concentrating on leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, and that "world models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment." Several months ago, Serenity believed that 4D AI/world modeling would be the most noteworthy area to watch, mentioning that AEVA might offer exposure to this sector. However, there are currently no clear pure-play targets in the market, and we may need to wait for the next batch of IPOs in this field. Serenity stated that AIGC applications are the most mature area of AI technology commercialization, but there are currently no clear winners. Funds continue to flow into AI infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain, while a large amount of capital is rotating into physical AI, embodied intelligence, humanoid robots, and world modeling, with cutting-edge modeling continuing to concentrate on leading companies.
"White-haired stock market guru" Serenity: Semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks are worsening, and packaging and testing manufacturers are raising prices.
According to Odaily Odaily, Serenity, a well-known stock market guru, summarized recent semiconductor industry developments on the X platform, stating that multiple signs indicate a tightening semiconductor supply chain. Citing institutional and industry sources, he pointed out that Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 shipment forecast for Chinese humanoid robots from 14,000 and 28,000 units at the beginning of the year to 50,000 units; probe cards and test sockets are expected to see price increases due to rising precious metal prices and a shortage of test pin capacity; and Yageo has raised prices for products such as MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors. In addition, Serenity stated that Meta's next-generation Vistara architecture will use DDR4 memory combined with CXL expansion; OpenAI has reportedly made a breakthrough in inference optimization, halving inference costs and reducing GPU requirements; and after Samsung signed long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with major US technology customers, MLCCs have also begun to adopt the long-term agreement supply model. The report also cited Digitimes, stating that OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Testing and Assembly) vendors have begun raising prices, and that memory and IC packaging and testing capacity has become a major bottleneck in the semiconductor supply chain.
Serenity: SIVE has the potential to grow into the next LITE.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Serenity published an article expressing its long-term optimism about Swedish optical company Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), believing it has the potential to become "the next Lumentum (LITE)." In recent months, Sivers has made several key advancements in the AI optical interconnect field, including collaborating with O-Net to advance ELS to mass production, supporting the mass production of Jabil (JBL) 1.6T LRO optical modules, partnering with GlobalFoundries (GFS) to develop continuous wave (CW) lasers for hyperscale cloud vendors, and entering the CPO (co-packaged optics) ecosystem with NVIDIA NVLink, AMD, Amazon, Alchip, and GUC through Ayar Labs. Furthermore, the company is collaborating with Lightium to develop TFLN+CW lasers and is expected to support optical interconnect solutions from Marvell Celestial, Lightelligence, and Lightmatter, while continuing to expand its customer base for undisclosed pluggable optical modules. A recent TrendForce report on cloud vendors like AMD actively securing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for CW lasers further validates the long-term demand prospects for independent CW laser suppliers. Serenity stated that as AI data center construction continues, various optical interconnect architectures, including 1.6T optical modules, LRO, NPO, and CPO, will develop in parallel over the next few years, providing Sivers with sustained revenue growth opportunities. The company recently completed an oversubscribed institutional financing round, with funds expected to be used to expand laser production capacity and strengthen wafer foundry partnerships. It also plans to complete its Nasdaq listing in the coming quarters to provide financing support for subsequent acquisitions. Currently, the market is overly focused on the commercialization pace of CPO, neglecting the fact that laser products can be widely used in various architectures such as pluggable optical modules, NPO, and CPO. With 1.6T optical modules entering mass production in the second half of 2026, CPO demand accelerating further in 2027, and the Nasdaq listing facilitating the implementation of its acquisition strategy, Sivers is expected to usher in a new round of performance and valuation improvements.
Serenity responds to the sharp drop in CPO stocks: The market has overreacted; the value of related stocks is supported by real income.
BlockBeats reported on July 3rd that Serenity responded to the recent collective decline in photonics stocks, stating that the previously mentioned CPO stocks have actual revenue support, contrasting sharply with the near-zero revenue of quantum computing. Among them, LITE capacity is sold out until 2029, and AAOI is entering the market with its US-made independent CW capacity, projecting quarterly revenue of $1.4 billion by the first half of 2027, yet its current market capitalization is a ridiculously low $9.3 billion. Serenity reiterated its bullish outlook on the optical module market, predicting that TAM will grow ninefold over the next two years, reaching $154 billion (according to a GS report), especially with dollar-denominated content expanding/upgrading by 16x/45x. "Despite short-term volatility, supply and demand fundamentals will drive stock prices back to normal."