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Polymarket 上「特朗普于 7 月 31 日前特赦 SBF」的概率降至不足 1%,且无新增其他期限

Foresight News 消息,据 Polymarket 页面,「特朗普于 7 月 31 日前特赦 SBF」押注市场当前概率已降至不足 1%,该市场交易量约 83.6 万美元。目前 Polymarket 尚未开设该预测的其他到期日预测市场。 据市场规则,若 Sam Bankman-Fried 于 2026 年 8 月 1 日 11:59 前获得特朗普的总统赦免、减刑或暂缓执行,该市场将以「Yes」结算,否则以「No」结算;若特朗普在此期限内客观上无法发布联邦赦免令,市场可能立即以「No」结算。结算依据以美国政府官方信息为主,可信媒体的广泛报道亦可作为参考。 Foresight News 此前消息,美国参议院决议反对向 FTX 创始人 SBF 予以特赦,并表示 SBF「在任何情况下」都不应获得赦免或减刑。
Disclaimer: The views above are the author's only and do not represent 711BTC. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

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07-07 20:48Important

US pre-market news at a glance: Samsung's earnings report triggered a collective weakness in semiconductor stocks in pre-market trading; SpaceX officially debuts on the Nasdaq 100 today.

According to BlockBeats, the following are key market news items before the US stock market opened on July 7th: 1. Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing an operating profit increase of over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profits exceeding the total of the previous three years. Simultaneously, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won. Affected by the semiconductor sell-off triggered by the "sell-off" of Samsung's earnings, chip-related technology stocks generally weakened in pre-market trading. The three major US stock futures indices showed mixed results in pre-market trading: Dow Jones futures rose 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.09%. 2. SpaceX officially debuted on the Nasdaq 100 before the US stock market opened today, with Wall Street institutions collectively bullish. Most institutions believe that SpaceX is no longer just a traditional aerospace company, but a platform company with the potential for rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, AI infrastructure, and future space computing. 3. DeepSeek is secretly developing its own inference chip. If successful, this would reduce reliance on external suppliers and give it more cost-effective hardware control. However, the project is still in its early stages and faces manufacturing and memory acquisition restrictions due to US export controls. 4. UBS recommends investors buy SK Hynix's upcoming American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and sell its South Korean shares, as these new shares are expected to trade at higher prices. 5. JPMorgan strategists say the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be seen as a buying opportunity, as the chip upcycle is not yet over, and truly meaningful new supply may not appear until 2028. 6. US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20 was 21,000, compared to 30,750 in the previous week. 7. BlackRock will launch an ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, aiming to meet investors' growing demand for participation in the AI-driven stock market rally and challenge Invesco's dominant position. 8. Amazon is returning to the US bond market to raise funds for its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company will issue eight benchmark bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 40 years, raising at least $25 billion in the dollar bond offering. 9. Global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has formed on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, although doubts remain about profitability and valuation.

07-07 16:51

Two traders sue Polymarket over disputed market settlement results.

According to Foresight News , The Block reports that William Wood and Thomas Bush are suing Polymarket over a prediction market that predicted "no" regarding whether Strategy would sell its tokens before May 31. According to the filed complaint, the plaintiff stated that Strategy clearly stated in its 8-K filing that the company sold 32 bitcoins between May 26 and 31, but Polymarket added a rule clause requiring Strategy to publicly confirm this by May 31. The plaintiffs allege that Polymarket altered the market terms after the transaction was resolved, violating the platform's core commitment to rules-based, objective, and fair dealing. They are demanding that Polymarket compensate the plaintiffs for their profits if the market outcome had been "yes," as well as litigation costs.

07-06 10:00

Hong Kong-listed technology stocks weakened after the market opened, influenced by market news regarding Samsung Electronics.

According to Odaily Odaily, some Hong Kong-listed technology stocks weakened after the market opened, possibly influenced by market news that Samsung Electronics plans to raise DRAM product prices by about 20% in the third quarter. Sunny Optical Technology fell by more than 4%, and Lenovo Group fell by 3.4%.

07-07 17:37

A major Polymarket trader went from a profit of $5.6 million to a loss in just 13 days.

PANews reported on July 7th that, according to Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader "1two1two" turned a profit of approximately $5.6 million into a loss of approximately $103,000 in 13 days. His account, created in June of this year, currently has a win rate of approximately 48.3% (14/29) and a cumulative trading volume of approximately $21.99 million. His largest losing trades include: Portugal vs. Spain (over 2.5 goals) with a loss of approximately $3.06 million, Ivory Coast vs. Norway (No) with a loss of approximately $2.64 million, and Brazil vs. Norway (Draw Yes) with a loss of approximately $748,000. His largest single winning trade was approximately $3.59 million, which was still insufficient to maintain the overall account profitability.

07-06 09:13

Meme tokens TCC and CZ have fallen more than 53% and 61% respectively from yesterday's highs.

According to Foresight News , GMGN data shows that Meme tokens TCC and CZ on BSC have fallen by more than 53% (up to $70.88 million) and 61% (up to $88.64 million) respectively from yesterday's highs. TCC's market capitalization is currently $32.87 million, and CZ's is currently $35.19 million.

07-04 09:01

Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter and has already notified some customers verbally.

According to Mars Finance, on July 4th, news broke yesterday that Samsung Electronics plans to raise the average selling price of DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) by 20% in the third quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter. An executive from a consumer electronics manufacturer confirmed, "This is true." They stated that Samsung had been in talks with them in June and they had received verbal notification of the DRAM price increase. "The significant price increase in upstream components will be passed on to the final product price, which will curb some market demand. However, the overall price of consumer electronics products is not high now, so even with the price increase, it is not expected to significantly affect consumer purchasing decisions." Another industry veteran confirmed that the news of Samsung's planned 20% DRAM price increase in the third quarter is true, and Samsung has already notified some customers of the verbal price quote.