Citrini观点：AI需求驱动韩日MLCC出货创五年新高，产能向AI转移致消费级库存告急
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Citrini analyst Jukan: MediaTek reportedly has secured Meta as an ASIC customer, following its TPU offerings.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, Odaily Odaily, supply chain sources indicate that MediaTek has essentially secured a second ASIC customer besides Google. If all goes as planned, this customer will be Meta, previously rumored. MediaTek, as is customary, does not publicly comment on individual products, customer situations, or market rumors. While Qualcomm currently appears to have key customers such as Meta, Microsoft, and ByteDance, industry insiders believe that MediaTek's continued deepening of its cooperation with Google and its potential to secure a second customer puts it at a disadvantage. Semiconductor supply chain sources state that, considering the order prospects and generational transition pace of major cloud service providers for AI data centers and ASIC products, Google remains the most aggressive and proactive major customer. MediaTek not only has two products codenamed Zebrafish and Humufish, but according to market information and confirmation from industry insiders familiar with ASICs, its participation in the v9 generation Triggerfish is almost certain. This means that from the end of 2026 to 2028, and even into 2029, MediaTek can reliably receive revenue contributions from TPU mass production. Compared to Qualcomm's $15 billion cloud AI revenue target for 2029, it's only a matter of time before MediaTek, holding multiple TPU ASIC orders, reaches the $10 billion level. The industry is also focused on whether MediaTek can successfully secure its second major cloud service provider client. Based on earlier market information and recent supply chain confirmations, MediaTek is still actively collaborating with Meta on ASIC products, likely focusing on AI acceleration chips. Meta recently partnered with Arm and Qualcomm, but the products are all CPU-oriented, with no further concrete news regarding its self-developed AI acceleration chips. IC design industry insiders say that Meta's recent cloud AI development strategy has indeed been rather chaotic and unclear, with multiple adjustments to its internal chip development plans, seeking multiple partners and adopting different solutions in the CPU field alone. Regarding AI acceleration chips, although Meta has officially announced its collaboration with Broadcom, supply chain sources indicate that this has not interrupted the ongoing collaboration between MediaTek and Meta. IC design industry professionals also emphasized that MediaTek and Qualcomm's cloud AI development blueprints are still significantly different. MediaTek is concentrating all its resources on ASIC business, while Qualcomm plans to simultaneously promote customization and standardization, while also covering AI acceleration chips and CPU products.
Analysis: Intel is only responsible for packaging Google's TPUs; the logic chips are still manufactured by TSMC.
According to Odaily Odaily, Citrini analyst Jukan posted on the X platform that he cannot understand why research reports describe Intel as "manufacturing" Google's TPU v9. To his knowledge, Intel is only responsible for packaging, while the logic chips are still manufactured by TSMC. Previously, it was reported that Google placed an order for over 3 million TPUs with Intel, and that Google and Nvidia were considering Intel as a backup chip manufacturing partner. Intel's stock price rose to a high of $113, but has since fallen back to $107. Note: The original report was titled "Google secures Intel for over 3 million AI chips."
Citigroup raised its forecast for the Chinese AI-PCB market, saying that Google's TPU demand may surpass Nvidia's in 2028.
According to Mars Finance, on June 23, Citigroup stated that AI servers and high-speed network upgrades are reshaping the growth prospects of China's PCB industry and raised its target prices for Shanghai Electric Group and Shenghong Technology, citing the potential for continued rapid expansion in AI-PCB demand over the next three years. In a report released on June 21, Citigroup revised its total potential market size forecast for AI-PCB to RMB 152 billion, RMB 307 billion, and RMB 562 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 86%, 102%, and 83%. The bank stated that the new model incorporates CPU and optical module PCB demand and provides a 2028 forecast for the first time. Citigroup expects that in 2027, AI-PCB demand will be dominated by ASICs, accounting for approximately 34%; NVIDIA GPU-related demand will account for 24%, CPUs for 16%, switches for 14%, and optical modules for 12%. In terms of growth rate, network-related demand is the strongest, especially with the increased volume of 1.6T optical modules and switches, which may drive optical module PCB demand to grow by 135% and 178% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The report states that Google's TPU-related PCB procurement may become a key growth driver in 2028. Citi predicts that Google's TPU PCB procurement may reach $16 billion by 2028, exceeding Nvidia's GPU-related PCB demand. Breaking down the new demand from 2027 to 2028, Google TPUs will contribute approximately 30%, Nvidia 25%, and switches and optical modules 14% each. With the rapid expansion of AI-PCB demand, capacity may become a new constraint. Citi predicts that the next round of PCB capacity expansion announcements may begin in the second half of 2026 to support demand in 2028. The bank stated that it typically takes 13 to 15 months for PCB manufacturers in mainland China to go from greenfield projects to mass production, with upstream fiberglass and copper-clad laminate expansion cycles being even longer, potentially reaching 18 months. This means that the supply of AI-CCL may tighten further. Citi believes that with major AI-PCB projects starting in the second half of 2026, the profitability visibility of leading PCB manufacturers with raw material lock-in capabilities will improve in 2027. Related expansion announcements may also act as a catalyst for the industry, strengthening investors' confidence in the long-term growth of AI-PCB. Regarding individual stocks, Citi maintains a "buy" rating on both Shanghai Electric Group and Shenghong Technology. The bank raised its target price for Shanghai Electric Group from RMB 119 to RMB 189, citing the company's strong mass production and delivery capabilities in the fields of data center switches and AI server PCBs. Citi expects Shanghai Electric Group's net profit to be RMB 6.7 billion, RMB 12.1 billion, and RMB 23.2 billion in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, and believes its compound annual growth rate of profit can reach 86%. Citigroup raised its target price for Shenghong Technology from 415 yuan to 456 yuan. Citigroup lowered its 2026 net profit forecast, mainly reflecting lower-than-expected revenue contribution from Rubin, but believes 2027 earnings will remain relatively stable and introduced a 2028 net profit forecast of 23.2 billion yuan for the first time. The bank stated that Shenghong Technology's long-term relationship with Nvidia, HDI capacity, and potential opportunities in data center switches and ASICs still support its valuation premium. However, Citigroup also cautioned that the AI-PCB market still faces multiple risks, including lower-than-expected GenAI-related order share, yield issues, price competition in the automotive supply chain, reduced capital expenditures by cloud vendors, weakening macroeconomic demand, rising material costs, and geopolitical risks between China and the US. Overall, Citigroup's assessment is that AI-PCB demand is no longer solely driven by Nvidia GPUs, but is expanding to ASICs, Google TPUs, high-speed switches, and optical modules. With demand entering the capacity planning phase ahead of schedule in 2028, leading Chinese PCB manufacturers with advanced manufacturing processes, customer resources, and material supply capabilities are likely to continue to be key beneficiaries of the expansion of AI infrastructure.
Research indicates that AI-powered high-end MLCCs are driving record-high order-to-shipment ratios for major Japanese and Korean manufacturers, increasing the risk of shortages in the second half of 2026.
According to the latest MLCC industry research from TrendForce, driven by both the accelerated replacement of AI servers and the continued mass production of self-developed ASIC chips by cloud service providers (CSPs), the order-to-shipment ratios (BB Ratios) of the three leading MLCC manufacturers—Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Taiyo Yuden—reached record highs of 1.30, 1.31, and 1.25 respectively in late June 2026. The overall MLCC market BB Ratio also rose to 1.04. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, with new AI chip platforms from Nvidia, Google, and AMD entering mass production in the third quarter, capacity will continue to be occupied by AI orders. Coupled with the dual demand of advance stockpiling, the probability of longer delivery times and rising prices for high-end MLCCs is increasing. The fourth quarter is expected to be a crucial period for observing whether the high-end MLCC market will officially enter a period of shortage. (Cailian Press)
Citrini analyst Jukan: Samsung Foundry achieved monthly profitability in June, its first since 2023.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, as reported by Odaily Korean media, Samsung Foundry achieved monthly profitability in June, its first such month since 2023. With this positive profit in June, Samsung internally believes the likelihood of a profit turnaround starting in the third quarter has increased. The use of Samsung's 4nm process for HBM4 base dies is considered a key factor driving this turnaround, while improved yield rates are also seen as a major factor supporting the positive monthly profit. Industry sources estimate that Samsung's 4nm process yield has improved to approximately 80%.
Google lost a €4.1 billion antitrust lawsuit against Android in an EU court.
According to Odaily Odaily, market news indicates that Alphabet's Google has lost a €4.1 billion antitrust lawsuit against Android in an EU court.