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Goldman Sachs strategists recommend investors appropriately increase their allocation to cloud service providers and reduce their holdings in semiconductor stocks.
According to Mars Finance, on June 26th, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian stated that in the AI-related trading sector, the investment appeal of large-cap tech stocks may further increase as chipmaker stock prices continue to fluctuate. Currently, the market leaders are chip companies and beneficiaries of AI capital expenditure, rather than cloud hyperscale service providers; these chip stocks belong to the most volatile sector in the AI industry chain, with significant funds heavily leveraged through ETFs, options, and other tools. "If the upward momentum in the AI sector continues, investors should increase their allocation to cloud service providers and reduce their holdings in semiconductor stocks. Semiconductors are the most volatile link in the AI capital expenditure chain."
Goldman Sachs: Investors reduce holdings in large technology companies
According to Odaily Odaily, Goldman Sachs stated that investors are reducing their exposure to the "Big Seven" and instead favoring beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, such as semiconductor companies, rather than hyperscale cloud providers that fund large-scale AI spending. Goldman Sachs believes the market is rewarding companies that are generating returns from their AI investments while questioning those that are bearing the costs. Caution towards large tech companies is likely to persist until hyperscale cloud providers demonstrate stronger earnings growth.
Goldman Sachs raised its target price for Kioxia, citing AI storage demand as driving the NAND cycle to even greater heights.
According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, amidst the continued surge in storage demand driven by AI data center construction, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings to ¥116,000 and maintained its buy rating. The bank believes that the supply and demand tension in the NAND market is tighter than previously expected, and the price increase cycle may continue until mid-2027, and even into 2028 in some segments. In its report on June 30th, Goldman Sachs stated that it had raised its operating profit forecasts for Kioxia for FY3/27 to FY3/29 by 9%, 19%, and 29%, respectively, and its EPS forecasts were also raised by 10%, 19%, and 29%, respectively. The bank expects that, on a calendar year basis, the average selling price of NAND will rise sharply in 2026 and continue to grow by 38% in 2027, higher than its previous forecast of 27%. The report states that research in Japanese distribution channels indicates major memory manufacturers are still prioritizing capital expenditures on DRAM rather than significantly increasing NAND production capacity. Given the expanding demand for AI, the increase in new NAND supply may not be significant until 2028. This has brought Kioxia back into the spotlight for investors. In the past few cycles, the NAND market has been considered a more cyclical and easily oversupplied memory sector due to its larger number of participants compared to the DRAM and HDD industries. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the profit peak of this upward cycle may be higher than previously assumed and could be sustained for longer. The reasons behind this include rising demand for enterprise-grade SSDs, substitution demand due to tight HDD supply, and the potential impact of US export controls on equipment supply to some South Korean manufacturers' factories in China. Kioxia's management has recently signaled a greater emphasis on price and profit margins. Goldman Sachs states that the company is not in a hurry to lock in shipments through long-term agreements, but rather emphasizes price discipline and gross margin levels. Because price negotiations for some Q1 bit shipments were not yet finalized when the company issued its guidance, Goldman Sachs expects Kioxia's FY3/27 operating profit, to be announced on July 31, to reach ¥1.417 trillion, higher than the company's guidance of ¥1.298 trillion and Bloomberg's consensus estimate of ¥1.36 trillion. Goldman Sachs focuses on two key investment rationale. First, Kioxia is the world's third-largest NAND flash memory manufacturer, possessing relatively strong cost competitiveness. Second, the company is gradually developing products for data centers, which are expected to be the fastest-growing segment of the NAND market. With increasing demand for high-performance storage from AI servers and enterprise-grade SSDs, Kioxia has the opportunity to achieve higher profit margins during periods of rising prices. However, Goldman Sachs also cautions that the cyclical nature of the NAND industry has not disappeared. Risks include a slowdown in AI investment, the rise of Chinese NAND manufacturers, declining profit margins due to rising costs or fluctuations in capacity utilization, a significant appreciation of the yen, and the impact of non-AI applications.
Goldman Sachs: US IPOs to rebound in 2026 but no bubble emerges; AI to be the core driver of financing.
PANews reported on June 27th, citing CoinDesk, that Goldman Sachs released its latest assessment of the US IPO market, indicating a significant recovery in US IPOs in 2026. However, the market's enthusiasm is still far from the level seen during the dot-com bubble of 2000. AI-related financing demand is the core driver of this IPO boom. Data shows that approximately 50 companies in the US have completed IPOs by 2026, more than double the number year-on-year, raising a total of approximately $120 billion, approaching the record for the entire year of 2021. Goldman Sachs' Chief US Equity Strategist, Ben Snider, stated that this recovery is a normal cyclical correction, primarily supported by large-scale corporate listings and the expansion of capital expenditure in the AI industry.
Goldman Sachs: Buy on dips in chip stocks, but avoid "buying a basket of chips" again.
According to Mars Finance, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report on July 7th that semiconductor stocks still present investment opportunities after the recent pullback, but AI chip trading has entered a more selective phase, and investors should no longer simply buy the entire sector. The bank pointed out that the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen by over 80% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. This strong performance has raised the bar for subsequent earnings realization and made the risk-reward ratio more differentiated ahead of the Q2 earnings season. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about certain sub-sectors, including CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment. Goldman Sachs believes these areas will benefit more directly from the expansion of AI infrastructure and have relatively higher demand visibility. In terms of individual stocks, Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned AMD and Applied Materials. AMD benefits from server CPU and AI-related demand, while Applied Materials benefits from advanced process technology and memory capital expenditure. However, Goldman Sachs is more cautious about the mobile phone supply chain and some semiconductor companies with high valuations or weak demand.
Goldman Sachs maintains Nvidia's $285 price target, valuation already reflects ASIC market share risk.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Buy" rating and $285 price target for Nvidia, stating that the stock's current valuation already largely reflects the risk of market share loss due to its self-developed AI chips and increased competition. Nvidia has recently underperformed the broader semiconductor sector. While chip stocks generally rebounded on Monday, Nvidia's gains were limited; year-to-date, its performance has also significantly lagged behind AI hardware companies like Micron, AMD, Intel, and Marvell. The main market concern is that major customers like Alphabet and Amazon are pushing their self-developed ASIC chips to third parties while still purchasing Nvidia GPUs. Meanwhile, increased CPU investment in AI workloads is also giving AMD and Intel more growth opportunities. However, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider believes that Nvidia's risk discount is already too large. He expects that even with some market share gained by ASICs and some incremental growth from competitors, Nvidia's revenue could still achieve strong growth next year. The Vera Rubin platform, which will enter mass production in the second half of the year, will be key to determining whether the company can widen the performance gap again.