Serenity：GlobalFoundries获美国芯片法案支持，利好Sivers与Lumentum
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Serenity: SIVE has the potential to grow into the next LITE.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Serenity published an article expressing its long-term optimism about Swedish optical company Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), believing it has the potential to become "the next Lumentum (LITE)." In recent months, Sivers has made several key advancements in the AI optical interconnect field, including collaborating with O-Net to advance ELS to mass production, supporting the mass production of Jabil (JBL) 1.6T LRO optical modules, partnering with GlobalFoundries (GFS) to develop continuous wave (CW) lasers for hyperscale cloud vendors, and entering the CPO (co-packaged optics) ecosystem with NVIDIA NVLink, AMD, Amazon, Alchip, and GUC through Ayar Labs. Furthermore, the company is collaborating with Lightium to develop TFLN+CW lasers and is expected to support optical interconnect solutions from Marvell Celestial, Lightelligence, and Lightmatter, while continuing to expand its customer base for undisclosed pluggable optical modules. A recent TrendForce report on cloud vendors like AMD actively securing long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for CW lasers further validates the long-term demand prospects for independent CW laser suppliers. Serenity stated that as AI data center construction continues, various optical interconnect architectures, including 1.6T optical modules, LRO, NPO, and CPO, will develop in parallel over the next few years, providing Sivers with sustained revenue growth opportunities. The company recently completed an oversubscribed institutional financing round, with funds expected to be used to expand laser production capacity and strengthen wafer foundry partnerships. It also plans to complete its Nasdaq listing in the coming quarters to provide financing support for subsequent acquisitions. Currently, the market is overly focused on the commercialization pace of CPO, neglecting the fact that laser products can be widely used in various architectures such as pluggable optical modules, NPO, and CPO. With 1.6T optical modules entering mass production in the second half of 2026, CPO demand accelerating further in 2027, and the Nasdaq listing facilitating the implementation of its acquisition strategy, Sivers is expected to usher in a new round of performance and valuation improvements.
Serenity: XFAB upgraded to "Buy"; AI and photonic chips may unlock long-term growth potential.
BlockBeats reported on July 6th that Serenity reposted Kelper's latest research report, upgrading semiconductor foundry XFAB's rating to "Buy." The report argues that Melexis demand is continuously improving, and the demand for silicon carbide (SiC), gallium nitride (GaN), and photonic chips driven by AI is expected to offset cyclical fluctuations in the automotive industry. Furthermore, the report notes that specialized foundries, scarce in the West, are receiving higher valuation premiums. Data shows that XFAB's current 2027 EV/EBITDA is only 4.8x, significantly lower than the industry median of 14.5x. Serenity stated that this indicates XFAB's core fundamentals are improving, but they are more optimistic about the growth potential of photonic chips, which the market has not yet fully priced in. They pointed out that XFAB leads the EU's PhotonixFAB project, which aims to build a European silicon photonics industry chain and promote the large-scale manufacturing of photonic chips. In the future, XFAB is expected to benefit from the growth in data center optical communication demand driven by AI giants such as Nvidia. However, since related commercial orders have not yet been implemented on a large scale, traditional valuation models still cannot reflect this long-term growth logic.
Serenity responds to the sharp drop in CPO stocks: The market has overreacted; the value of related stocks is supported by real income.
BlockBeats reported on July 3rd that Serenity responded to the recent collective decline in photonics stocks, stating that the previously mentioned CPO stocks have actual revenue support, contrasting sharply with the near-zero revenue of quantum computing. Among them, LITE capacity is sold out until 2029, and AAOI is entering the market with its US-made independent CW capacity, projecting quarterly revenue of $1.4 billion by the first half of 2027, yet its current market capitalization is a ridiculously low $9.3 billion. Serenity reiterated its bullish outlook on the optical module market, predicting that TAM will grow ninefold over the next two years, reaching $154 billion (according to a GS report), especially with dollar-denominated content expanding/upgrading by 16x/45x. "Despite short-term volatility, supply and demand fundamentals will drive stock prices back to normal."
"New Warren Buffett" Serenity: Sivers secures $8.2 million space communications contract, potentially leading to more defense contracts.
According to Odaily Odaily, "new stock market guru" Serenity announced that Sivers has secured an $8.2 million bulk order from allspace for beamforming IC products used in LEO and multi-orbit satellite communication systems. Serenity believes the significance of this order lies not only in the contract amount itself, but also in the fact that Sivers, through its acquisition of allspace, has entered a larger defense supply chain, potentially securing more orders and bulk purchase contracts in the future. Furthermore, it states that Sivers holds a key position in the space and defense communications industry chain, and is optimistic about the company's photonics business benefiting from the future growth in demand from the AI data center and optical module industries.
Serenity: SemiAnalysis is accused of "building positions after shorting," and related optical communication companies have been included in the cooperative ETF.
Mars Finance reported on July 5th that Serenity, citing UDN Money, stated that research firm SemiAnalysis has sparked market controversy due to a series of actions. In June, SemiAnalysis released a research report citing low yield rates for CPO (co-packaged optics) technology and potential delays in product launches, indicating a bearish outlook on the optical communication sector and causing a sharp decline in related stock prices. Subsequently, the firm partnered with Tema ETFs to launch an optical communication-themed ETF. Notably, companies like Himax Technologies and Lumentum Holdings, which SemiAnalysis heavily criticized in its "Powered Down, Lights Off" report, were included in the ETF's holdings after the sector's correction, sparking market discussion about its "bearish first, then allocation" strategy.
Serenity notes: SIVE's US stock listing wording has been upgraded from "assessment" to "completion is imminent," indicating progress exceeding market expectations.
According to Mars Finance, on July 1st, Serenity published an article highlighting that Sivers Semiconductors subtly released a signal in its latest private placement announcement that was overlooked by most screening tools and investors—the CEO explicitly stated the company's intention to complete the Nasdaq listing process within the next few quarters. This is a substantial difference from its statement in April, when the company only mentioned "evaluating a dual listing." Now, it has upgraded to confirming an execution timeline, marking a move from the concept stage to the execution confirmation stage. This private placement will raise approximately 700 million Swedish kronor for capacity expansion, strengthening the balance sheet, and accelerating R&D, clearly paving the way for the listing. Looking back at the timeline, Sivers first announced its evaluation of a dual listing on Nasdaq New York in April of this year, subsequently upgrading its audit to PCAOB standards and postponing the release of its annual report—each step pointing towards the US capital market. Based on the "next few quarters" timeline, the listing window roughly falls between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. Serenity has repeatedly emphasized SIVE's bottleneck position in the CPO and pluggable optical module laser supply chain, and this substantial progress in the listing process is seen as another milestone in realizing the benefits.