Wintermute计划未来五年投入约10亿美元建设高频交易及AI基础设施
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Wintermute: The recent Bitcoin price movement is a rebound and correction, not a structural shift in the market.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Decrypt, market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin's recent nearly 10% rebound is a "textbook rally" rather than a structural market shift, and the company remains cautious. Wintermute pointed out that the easing of the macro environment, the Fed's dovish stance, and positive news regarding Ethereum and institutional adoption are the three factors driving the rebound, sufficient to explain the current market movement without needing a larger narrative. The company believes the market may continue to "rise slightly." However, Wintermute stated that a single data point does not constitute a trend, and more sustained inflows are needed to confirm a structural shift; until broader capital flows truly reverse, the current movement is merely a correction.
Wintermute: Bitcoin may fall to $59,000 in the short term due to summer liquidity contraction.
PANews reported on June 24th that, according to CoinDesk, market maker Wintermute's over-the-counter (OTC) trading division stated in a report that Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling towards the lower end of their recent trading ranges, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical news. Wintermute options pricing indicates that Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $61,242 and $63,563 over the next 24 hours, while Ethereum is expected to fluctuate between $1,606 and $1,694. The report also noted that correlations between tokens are increasing, liquidity is shrinking with the arrival of summer, and there are no signs of new institutional buying in ETF inflows. Wintermute has marked $59,000 as a key level to watch; if current pressure persists, this level could become a support level for a bear market low.
Nova Markets has completed a new round of funding to expand its on-chain market, with support from institutions such as Wintermute Ventures.
PANews reported on June 4th that Nova Markets, an on-chain capital and prediction market infrastructure project, announced the completion of a new round of financing. Investors include new and existing institutional investors such as Wintermute, Robot Ventures, Big Brain VC, Cumberland, GSR, Greenfield Capital, Hash3, Bodhi Ventures, and Kairos Research. Nova stated that the current number of existing on-chain capital markets is far below the ideal level, and the financing will be used to migrate more perpetual contracts and prediction markets onto the blockchain, reshaping the generation and trading structure of these markets.
Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a "relief rally" than the start of a new bull market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest US non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, coupled with Warsh's speech being interpreted as dovish, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market performing the best. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently. Bitcoin's current rally has a more solid foundation, mainly driven by continued whale buying, options fund flows towards call options, and improved on-chain data. The end of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs also boosted market sentiment. The cooling US job market has further reduced market expectations for interest rate hikes this year, while Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release more hawkish signals, which investors interpreted as a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the crypto market, on-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while options market funds have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices of $60,000 to $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise is largely driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued progress of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of approximately 20% and budget cuts of about 40%, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of gains is more characteristic of a "relief rebound" than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improved macroeconomic environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional investment in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have all contributed to the market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF fund flows continue to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as a sentiment correction rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future.
Wintermute: Cooling AI trading drags down market, Bitcoin tests key support level.
According to Mars Finance, a recent report from Wintermute shows that the cooling of AI trading has triggered a market style shift. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell for the fifth consecutive trading day, with a single-day drop of 4.5%, and the semiconductor sector was under significant pressure. Bitcoin fell 5.9%, breaking below $60,000 to approximately $59,300, while Ethereum fell 7.9%. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose to 4.1% year-on-year in May, reinforcing expectations that high interest rates will persist for longer, and the strengthening US dollar also put pressure on crypto assets.
Wintermute: Risk assets are likely to remain volatile in the short term, with buying interest yet to show a significant recovery.
According to Mars Finance, on June 23, Windemute reported that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% this month, but released a clearly hawkish signal. The latest dot plot shifted from suggesting rate cuts to suggesting rate hikes, with the median interest rate forecast for 2026 rising from 3.4% to 3.8%. Nine out of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike this year, and 17 believe inflation risks are skewed to the upside. The market subsequently adjusted its expectations, with the probability of a December rate hike rising from 24% a month ago to 77%, indicating that the Fed is once again placing anti-inflation at the core of its policy. Geopolitically, the Iran agreement, originally scheduled for signing on June 19, unexpectedly stalled. Following Israel's attack on southern Lebanon, Iran withdrew from negotiations, forcing the signing ceremony to be postponed. The rise in US stocks and the fall in oil prices were largely based on expectations of an agreement; now the market needs to reassess the previously diminished geopolitical risk premium. The crypto market has been the first to complete this risk repricing. Despite Strategy's disclosure of an increase of 1,587 BTC, alleviating market concerns about a potential sell-off, Wintermute believes that ETF and institutional buying have not yet shown a significant recovery. In the short term, market focus will shift to US PCE data and progress in Middle East negotiations; until fund flows improve, risk assets may continue to fluctuate.