Turf 团队加入 Polymarket，曾开发实时 NFL 预测游戏
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Polymarket is suspected of hiring influencers to post fake profit-making videos; the company says it is conducting a full audit.
According to a Wall Street Journal investigation, prediction market platform Polymarket allegedly paid dozens of social media creators to record videos of fake betting and high-stakes wins on a simulated website highly similar to its official website, as a promotional tactic to attract new users. The report indicates that creators were instructed to conceal official sponsorship and explicitly target a US audience. The investigation shows that these marketing videos garnered over 140 million views on platforms such as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, involving up to $1.9 million in fake bets. Polymarket did not directly respond to specific details of the investigation, but stated in a statement that, as part of promoting industry transparency, the platform is conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it strictly complies with internal standards and applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.
Polymarket has added a new forecast for "Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026".
Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a "Federal Reserve Rate Hike Count in 2026" prediction event. From an interest rate path perspective, the market is currently trading two diametrically opposed macroeconomic narratives: one view holds that the US economy will enter a period of slower growth in 2026, and the Fed will remain on the sidelines or even resume rate cuts; the other view argues that if inflation rebounds or long-term inflation expectations spiral out of control, the Fed may be forced to restart a rate hike cycle. Therefore, the high pricing surrounding "3 to 4 rate hikes" essentially reflects the market's reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path. Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research's latest forecast predicts that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December 2026, for a total of 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This assessment represents a significant upward revision from the previous expectation of "keeping interest rates unchanged this year," primarily based on the resilience of the US labor market, the slow pace of inflation decline, and the possibility that the Fed's policy response function under new Chairman Kevin Warsh will be more hawkish. In contrast, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to begin raising interest rates in September, but with a cumulative increase of 50 basis points this year, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to US interest rates in 2026. Odaily Seer continues to focus on the forecasting market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
"White-Haired Stock God" Commentary Predicts Market Regulation: Additional Regulatory Review is Coming; Investigation Should Focus on the Impact of Polymarket KOL Paid Marketing on Platform X's Algorithm Behavior
Odaily Odaily that in response to today's Wall Street Journal report alleging that Polymarket marketed itself to US users through simulated trading and fake profit videos, "White-haired stock guru" Serenity posted on the X platform, stating that prediction markets will face significant additional regulatory scrutiny. He pointed out that regulators should also investigate how Polymarket pays KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) for marketing purposes, manipulating the X algorithm with undisclosed paid reviews. He stated that as the user with the most subscribers on the X platform, he frequently receives such collaboration offers, but he does not accept paid promotions to ensure his personal research remains unaffected by external influences. Furthermore, he reiterated in the comments section: "I only use the X platform; accounts on other platforms are all scams."
Polymarket has been accused of marketing to U.S. users through demo trading and fake profit videos.
According to Odaily Odaily, prediction market platform Polymarket is accused of promoting its products on social media by having paid creators publish simulated trading and fake profit videos. The report states that creators used a mock site highly similar to Polymarket's official website to produce trading videos. Some of the high returns shown were not actually realized, and some videos even required Polymarket's review process. Polymarket manages influencer campaigns through its marketing company Virality, and despite its services being limited to US users, these marketing campaigns were still targeted at US audiences. In addition, The Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket has a multi-million dollar promotional partnership with influencer Adin Ross to drive user engagement on its platform. Polymarket has not yet publicly responded to this report. (Wall Street Journal)
JPMorgan cuts Polymarket banking ties over regulatory concerns: Report
JPMorgan Chase reportedly cut banking ties with Polymarket in October 2025 over regulatory concerns but remains open to an underwriting role if the platform goes public.
Data: GMGN Smart Money 24-hour net inflow ranking, ANSEM tops the list.
According to Mars Finance and GMGN data, the top 5 tokens with the largest net inflows of smart money in the past 24 hours are as follows: 1.ANSEM (9cRC....ump): Net inflow of $30,000, down 29.4% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.279. 2.Jotchua (BcHE....ump): Net inflow of $8,000, down 26.2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.004. 3.TROLL (5UUH....gH2): Net inflow of $5,000, down 15.2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.0495. 4.Cupsey (6Nwa....ump): Net inflow of $5,000, up 1096.4% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.0069. 5.DADDY (4Cnk....ump): Net inflow of $3,000, down 8.9% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $0.0156.