JPMorgan cuts Polymarket banking ties over regulatory concerns: Report
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JPMorgan Chase and HSBC: Market pullbacks provide a window for investment, not a trend reversal.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, as we enter the second half of the year, several Wall Street institutions believe that the recent market correction is more of a repositioning opportunity than a trend reversal. Both JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings believe that short-term volatility in global stock markets will not change the overall upward outlook, but the two institutions differ in their specific allocation strategies. Mislav Matejka, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, and his team stated that they have maintained a "buy on dips" view since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict. The bank believes that the global economy remains resilient, the situation in the Middle East has not significantly damaged economic growth, and central banks have not shifted to more aggressive tightening policies. Strategists expect that global and emerging market stock markets are likely to reach new highs in the future, and believe that the attractiveness of international markets is increasing. They also believe that the South Korean market, after its recent correction, is worth buying on dips. In terms of sectors, JPMorgan Chase believes that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has presented another buying opportunity after the recent correction, but remains relatively cautious about large-cap US technology stocks. The bank advises caution regarding AI-driven sectors, including software, business services, and media. Conversely, the basic resources sector has regained its investment value after recent adjustments, and gold is becoming more attractive. Strategists also point out that overall investor positioning remains cautious, with the market holding substantial cash reserves. If a summer correction occurs, funds are expected to flow back into the stock market. Max Kettner, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at HSBC Holdings, is more focused on the recovery opportunities in leading AI companies. He stated that the market is entering its summer rally in July and August, and AI hyperscale cloud service providers have already experienced a cumulative correction of approximately 20%, which is considered excessive. Kettner believes that current market expectations for these companies' earnings have been significantly lowered, and these companies still maintain strong profitability. If they can prove that their massive AI capital expenditures are gradually translating into revenue, it will further drive valuation recovery.
JPMorgan Chase: Semiconductor stocks' continued outperformance of cloud service providers may be unsustainable; AI trading may see sector rotation.
According to a report titled "Fund Flows and Liquidity: The Need for AI Rotation" released by JPMorgan Chase on July 3rd, semiconductor stocks—specifically, AI chip and memory manufacturers—have consistently and almost steadily outperformed hyperscale cloud service providers since September of last year. This performance gap appears unsustainable in the long term. The report argues that since semiconductor trading is inherently part of a broader AI market, the current divergence is raising concerns about its sustainability. JPMorgan Chase states that this gap could narrow in two ways. In a positive scenario, as hyperscale cloud providers, AI model providers, and users improve in commercialization, revenue, and profitability, their performance will begin to catch up, gaining a larger share of overall AI value-added. In a negative scenario, if the semiconductor outperformance comes at the expense of customers such as hyperscale cloud providers, AI model providers, or end users, it could dampen their willingness to invest in capital expenditures, ultimately hindering demand for semiconductor companies' products. The report notes that while JPMorgan Chase's internal view leans towards a more positive scenario, analysts' consensus forecast indicates a significant slowdown in hyperscale cloud service provider capital expenditure growth starting next year, which, if true, is closer to a negative scenario. The report states that hyperscale cloud service provider capital expenditure growth is projected to reach 100% in 2026, but may drop to 22% in 2027 and further to 7% in 2028. If this slowdown path holds true, semiconductor transactions could face significant pressure, triggering a more significant and sustained correction in AI transactions across the stock and bond markets. JPMorgan Chase also states that the price of AI computing power will be crucial for hyperscale cloud service providers to commercialize their AI capital expenditures. Higher computing power prices will enable cloud service providers to maintain or increase profit margins. Furthermore, the report states that the rate of money creation in the United States is projected to rise from $1.6 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2026, continuing to support US financial assets, particularly US stocks.
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JPMorgan Chase: Potential obstacles to a Tesla-SpaceX merger have been underestimated.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta stated that while a Tesla-SpaceX merger "looks plausible on paper," current speculation surrounding the merger underestimates the potential obstacles hindering the deal. These potential obstacles include regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions; governance and voting rights symmetry; and the perception that "the merger will be a SpaceX-led acquisition, rather than a merger of equals." He added, "Overall, we will be watching SpaceX's acquisition currency, the regulatory landscape, and Musk's voting rights in Tesla as catalysts for a potential merger." JPMorgan stated that if the deal occurs, the most likely structure would be a SpaceX-led, all-stock acquisition of Tesla.