华尔街「抄底」情绪回归：美股重返历史高位，机构上调标普500目标
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Wall Street is collectively bearish on the euro, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase predicting a drop of over 3% in the next year.
According to Mars Finance, on June 29th, several major Wall Street banks lowered their euro/dollar exchange rate forecasts. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and BNY Mellon all predict that the euro will fall by more than 3% to around 1.10 over the next year. The euro has already fallen to a one-year low this month, a stark contrast to its five-year high of over 1.20 at the beginning of the year. Policy divergence is the core driving factor. New Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh has released a hawkish stance against inflation, leading the market to bet again on a rate hike this year; European Central Bank President Lagarde, on the other hand, stated that there is no need for aggressive policy responses to the Middle East conflict, indicating a relatively moderate approach. The Iran war has pushed up oil prices and strengthened demand for the dollar, further weakening the euro's support. Options market signals have also weakened, with the one-year risk reversal indicator falling to its most bearish level since March 2025. Societe Generale's chief foreign exchange strategist bluntly stated that "the euro's upward trend is basically over," comparing the current energy shock to the severe damage to the European economy following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although Bank of America lowered its year-end forecast from 1.20 to 1.15, it maintained a "neutral" assessment, making it one of the few relatively moderate voices.
Multiple Wall Street firms are collectively advocating for "buying on dips" in the semiconductor sector: the long-term logic of AI remains unchanged, but investment is entering an era of selective buying.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, amidst the recent continuous correction in the semiconductor sector, several Wall Street institutions have voiced their opinions, generally believing that the current adjustment presents an opportunity for investors to "buy on dips." However, unlike past recommendations to allocate across the entire semiconductor sector, institutions generally believe that AI investment has entered a phase of selective stock picking. Goldman Sachs stated that AI chip trading has entered a more selective phase, and does not recommend continuing to "buy a basket" of semiconductor stocks. They remain optimistic about specific sub-sectors such as CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment, specifically highlighting AMD and Applied Materials. JPMorgan Chase believes that the recent correction in semiconductor stocks presents a good entry window, as AI chip demand remains in a long-term upward cycle, with new capacity not expected to be significantly released until around 2028, and the industry's supply and demand structure remains healthy. Bank of America maintains its optimistic outlook on the long-term boom cycle of AI semiconductors, believing the industry is still in the middle of an 8- to 10-year growth cycle, and the global semiconductor market size is expected to continue to expand. They recommend focusing on industry leaders such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam Research, and KLA. UBS stated that the long-term investment logic for AI remains unchanged, and the short-term fluctuations in the semiconductor sector actually provide long-term investors with opportunities to gradually build positions. They recommend taking advantage of market corrections to buy on dips. Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term prospects for AI chips remain positive, but with the sector's significant rise, the market will focus more on earnings realization capabilities. Funds may gradually rotate from some chip stocks to AI infrastructure beneficiaries such as cloud computing, and investors should pay more attention to individual stock selection. Overall, several Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and UBS, have recently released similar signals: the semiconductor correction is not the end of the AI rally, but rather provides a new window for investment. However, the market has moved from a phase of "broad-based sector gains" to one of "selecting leading companies," and future performance will depend more on companies' earnings realization capabilities and the sustainability of demand for AI infrastructure.
JPMorgan Chase and HSBC: Market pullbacks provide a window for investment, not a trend reversal.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, as we enter the second half of the year, several Wall Street institutions believe that the recent market correction is more of a repositioning opportunity than a trend reversal. Both JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings believe that short-term volatility in global stock markets will not change the overall upward outlook, but the two institutions differ in their specific allocation strategies. Mislav Matejka, Head of Global and European Equity Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, and his team stated that they have maintained a "buy on dips" view since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict. The bank believes that the global economy remains resilient, the situation in the Middle East has not significantly damaged economic growth, and central banks have not shifted to more aggressive tightening policies. Strategists expect that global and emerging market stock markets are likely to reach new highs in the future, and believe that the attractiveness of international markets is increasing. They also believe that the South Korean market, after its recent correction, is worth buying on dips. In terms of sectors, JPMorgan Chase believes that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has presented another buying opportunity after the recent correction, but remains relatively cautious about large-cap US technology stocks. The bank advises caution regarding AI-driven sectors, including software, business services, and media. Conversely, the basic resources sector has regained its investment value after recent adjustments, and gold is becoming more attractive. Strategists also point out that overall investor positioning remains cautious, with the market holding substantial cash reserves. If a summer correction occurs, funds are expected to flow back into the stock market. Max Kettner, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at HSBC Holdings, is more focused on the recovery opportunities in leading AI companies. He stated that the market is entering its summer rally in July and August, and AI hyperscale cloud service providers have already experienced a cumulative correction of approximately 20%, which is considered excessive. Kettner believes that current market expectations for these companies' earnings have been significantly lowered, and these companies still maintain strong profitability. If they can prove that their massive AI capital expenditures are gradually translating into revenue, it will further drive valuation recovery.
SpaceX IPO quiet period ends, Wall Street institutions scramble to upgrade ratings
According to Odaily Odaily, with the end of the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports, with several major brokerages giving it a positive rating, indicating that institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. As underwriters for the IPO, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both gave SpaceX a buy-equivalent rating. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a target price of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target price of $300. In addition, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and other institutions also initiated coverage, giving buy or equivalent ratings. Raymond James Financial gave the most optimistic forecast, with analyst Brian Gesuale initiating coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a target price as high as $800, believing that SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century." Analysts believe that the market's optimism about SpaceX is mainly based on its strategic layout in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a continuous source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale. As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX held 18,712 bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the IPO quiet period provided a window for institutional investors to systematically assess SpaceX's valuation for the first time, and the fact that almost all major institutions simultaneously gave positive ratings is rare for large IPOs. (CoinDesk)
SpaceX receives its first "buy" ratings from global brokerages, with Morgan Stanley leading the pack with a target price of $300.
PANews reported on July 7th that, according to Jinshi, global brokerages have begun coverage research on Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX.O), and a preliminary consensus has been reached on Wall Street: buy the stock. At least six brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have given it a buy rating, expressing optimism about its long-term growth prospects, despite remaining concerns about profitability and valuation. In a report dated July 7th, Morgan Stanley analysts stated, "SpaceX can convert energy into intelligence on a large scale and commercialize it through AI-driven consumer and enterprise solutions." Their target price is $300, currently the highest among Wall Street investment banks, implying an 87% upside from Monday's closing price of $160.42.
JPMorgan Chase: Robotics and autonomous driving may be the next winners in the AI wave.
According to Odaily Odaily, Raisah Rasid, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, robotics and autonomous driving companies may be the next wave of winners in the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. She noted, "The AI story is far from over, and mass adoption is accelerating, especially in generative AI." She added that as AI-related winners spread beyond hyperscale companies, profit growth (particularly in the hardware sector) has been driving returns in major markets. However, she stated that the triple-digit growth of the South Korean KOSPI index in the first half of the year is unlikely to be repeated in the second half, with growth expected to moderate, as companies may struggle to maintain strong pricing power in the hardware sector. (Jinshi)