Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 10%
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The window for the passage of the Clarity Act is narrowing: whether it can pass before Congress's summer recess remains uncertain.
According to Foresight News , citing CoinDesk, the CLARITY Act's original goal of being signed on July 4th has been missed, and the window for its passage before the midterm elections is rapidly closing. While most of the Senate's work can proceed behind the scenes during the summer recess, the House process is currently stalled. Negotiators remain optimistic about passing the bill by 2026, but key coordination needs to be completed before the Senate recess on August 7th. If the bill fails to pass before the midterm elections, and the Democrats gain control of Congress after the elections, they will likely demand significant changes to the bill.
The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 has risen to 52%.
According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Mars Finance on July 5th, the probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 has risen to 52%, an increase of 12 percentage points from July 3rd. In related news, the Major County Sheriffs Association (MCSA) stated that it no longer opposes the Clarity Act after initially expressing concerns about how it would affect investigations into illicit finance. Analysts believe that the MCSA's change of stance reduces a key obstacle in the Clarity Act's progress, increasing its likelihood of reaching the Senate vote. However, opposition from the banking industry to stablecoin yield products and DeFi regulation remains a major uncertainty.
China Galaxy Securities: Structural Breakthrough Focuses on Science and Technology Innovation Manufacturing; Main Theme Shifts to Three Major Directions: Semiconductors, AI, and Aerospace.
According to a research report released by China Galaxy Securities, the main theme within the technology and manufacturing sector has clearly shifted from "AI + New Energy" in May to "Semiconductors + AI + Aerospace" in June. Thematic rotation has slowed compared to May, and the market's main focus is more concentrated. Considering macroeconomic, style, and industry signals, the current market presents a pattern of "macroeconomic pressure + clear structural themes." While the overall environment constrains risk appetite, funds have reached a high degree of consensus on manufacturing upgrades, energy security, and AI industry trends, continuously flowing into the science and technology innovation, semiconductor, aerospace, and manufacturing sectors, making them the areas with the strongest relative return potential in the market. In terms of style, the growth sector continues to dominate, which corroborates the structural strength of the science and technology innovation and manufacturing themes, together forming the core allocation logic at this stage. (Cailian Press)
After ongoing discussions on Section 604, the MCSA has shifted to a neutral stance on the Clarity Act.
According to an article published on the X platform by a Fox Business Odaily reporter, the Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA) has shifted to a "neutral" stance on the Clarity Act after recent ongoing discussions surrounding Section 604, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. In a letter to the Senate Banking Committee leadership, the MCSA stated that, based on its ongoing review of the bill, there remains an opportunity to further strengthen the legislation in a way that supports responsible innovation and addresses the practical needs of state and local enforcement.
Galaxy Securities: We recommend focusing on leading computing power leasing companies.
According to Mars Finance, Galaxy Securities points out that with the explosive growth in demand for AI inference computing power, the token factory business model is accelerating. Compared with traditional computing power leasing, token factories place greater emphasis on binding with downstream large-scale model inference needs. Pricing is gradually shifting from "computing power resources and duration" to "token output and unit cost." Upstream computing infrastructure can participate more in the value distribution of downstream model manufacturers, strengthening the bargaining power of the upstream computing infrastructure segment and sharing the dividends of the token economy era. Galaxy Securities believes that computing power leasing companies are currently exploring the "token factory" cooperation model with large model manufacturers, which will gradually evolve from the underlying "selling resources" model of computing power leasing to a "selling output" model. Computing power leasing companies will provide MaaS services and share the dividends of the token boom by adopting a token revenue-sharing profit model. This is expected to improve the profit margin of computing power leasing companies, and the valuation center is expected to further increase. It is recommended to pay attention to leading computing power leasing companies.