Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
Related
Data: Signa platform users have created 854 World Cup-related prediction markets.
According to Foresight News , Signa's latest data shows that the popularity of the 2026 FIFA World Cup-themed prediction market continues to rise as the World Cup knockout stages unfold. To date, platform users have created 854 World Cup-related prediction markets. The cumulative trading volume has reached $788,400, with 6,200 trades completed. The number of participating users has increased to 3,620, and the total value locked (TVL) has reached $755,100. Signa stated that the World Cup is becoming a significant catalyst for the growth of the prediction market, and that more innovative marketing and interactive activities centered around the tournament and trending events will be launched in the future to bring users a richer experience.
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
AlphAi upgrades Polymarket's compatibility with prediction market experiences, adding AI analytics and real-time signals.
According to official Odaily, Web3 trading platform AlphAi has announced an upgrade to its Polymarket-compatible prediction market experience, further integrating prediction markets into the platform's trading ecosystem. This upgrade adds AI analytics, real-time market signals, structured navigation, and Crypto market categorization. Users can view AI reference analysis, social dynamics, Smart Money activities, and real-time event markers on supported prediction market pages to better understand the information flow, fund movements, and event progression behind changes in market probability. AlphAi stated that prediction markets are gradually evolving from simple order book access to a more intelligent, event-driven trading experience. The platform will continue to build a trading discovery and entry point for Web3 users, focusing on memes, prediction markets, crypto events, and other emerging trading scenarios.
Market Outlook for Next Week: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes Released, Market Focuses on Interest Rate Hike Path and Gold Price Movement
Mars Finance reports that on July 5th, global markets will see the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes, and several important economic data releases next week. The market will focus on the Fed's latest assessment of inflation and interest rate paths, as well as US services PMI and initial jobless claims data. Gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term. Key points to watch include: • Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Released early Thursday morning Beijing time, the market hopes to glean more details about the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chairman Warsh to determine if there is still room for rate hikes by the end of the year. The interest rate market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December and believes there is a certain probability of an earlier move in October. • Fed Officials' Speeches: Officials such as Williams, Logan, and Waller will deliver speeches, and the market will focus on whether they will adjust their hawkish stance due to recent weak non-farm payroll data. • European Central Bank Minutes: Released on Thursday, investors will focus on the European Central Bank's latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and subsequent monetary policy. * **Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision:** The market expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike; attention will be focused on whether it delivers on its previous hawkish guidance. * **Important Economic Data:** Data including the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global Services PMI, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims will be released successively, providing new clues for the market to assess the US economic and interest rate outlook. * **Gold Outlook:** HSBC believes that with real interest rates remaining high and the US dollar relatively strong, gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term, but central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global trend of de-dollarization still support its medium- to long-term upward trend. * **Earnings Season Begins:** PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi's, and other companies will be among the first to release their second-quarter results. The market will focus on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year earnings guidance, serving as a warm-up for the mid-July bank earnings season.
Binance Wallet has completed its integration and upgrade with Prediction Markets, and related services have been restored to normal.
According to BlockBeats, Binance Wallet completed its Prediction Markets integration upgrade on July 2nd, and related services resumed normal operation at 06:50 (UTC) on the same day. Binance expresses its gratitude to users for their patience and support during the upgrade process.
Bitunix Analyst: With policy and geopolitical variables intertwined, global markets await further confirmation signals.
According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, global markets continued to digest the impact of the Middle East situation, US policy, and signals from central banks around the world. The latest US Supreme Court ruling expanded the president's authority to dismiss officials of certain federal agencies, but simultaneously prevented the removal of Federal Reserve governors, keeping the market focused on the Fed's policy independence. On the other hand, US strategic petroleum reserves fell to their lowest level since 1983, while South Korea announced plans to build a large-scale AI data center, reflecting continued global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Although the ceasefire framework in the Middle East remains in place, uncertainty persists. Iran stated that it has no plans to engage in formal negotiations with the US in the near future, prioritizing the implementation of the memorandum of understanding and continuing to strengthen its control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump stated that US and Iranian representatives would meet in Doha, highlighting a discrepancy in public statements regarding the progress of negotiations. The market is also focused on persistently high shipping insurance premiums, restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and global energy restocking demand, indicating that even with oil prices falling to around $70, risks to the energy supply chain have not been completely eliminated. Regarding central bank policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that further interest rate hikes could be necessary if needed. However, the market believes that falling oil prices and an economic slowdown may reduce the likelihood of further tightening. On the other hand, the yen broke below a key exchange rate range in which the Japanese government intervened in 2024, putting renewed pressure on the government to intervene in the foreign exchange market. This also reflects the continued impact of high interest rates and a strong US dollar on capital flows in major global economies. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $58,060 and $61,931, with overall market sentiment remaining cautious. Given the unclear global policy signals, the continued geopolitical influence on the energy market, and the divergent policy paths among major central banks, short-term risk appetite remains easily driven by macroeconomic events. The market will continue to focus on developments in the US-Iran situation, central bank policy moves, and any new changes in the global liquidity environment. These factors will remain key considerations influencing the volatility of risk assets.