Bitcoin tags $65K as S&P 500 rebounds from 2-week lows on US-Iran rhetoric
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Analysis: Amidst record outflows from ETFs, whale snapped up 270,000 BTC, signaling a structural divergence in Bitcoin's future.
PANews reported on July 5th, citing CoinDesk, that amidst a continued outflow of institutional funds from the US, Bitcoin whale have accumulated over 270,000 BTC (approximately $16.7 billion) in the past two weeks, a stark contrast to the record outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysis indicates this divergence exhibits historical cyclical characteristics: while institutional funds withdraw, long-term holders and whale accounts continue to accumulate, resembling a fund redistribution structure commonly seen at the bottom of previous cycles. On-chain data shows that although the spot premium remains negative, indicating weak buying pressure, large wallets continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, suggesting the market is currently in a structural phase of "institutional deleveraging and long-term fund accumulation."
BTC price loses 200-week trend line as 2022 repeats: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin confirmed a weekly candle close below its 200-week moving average, copying the 2022 bear-market as traders warn of further BTC price downside next.
Bitcoin price drops to $62.5K as trader warns weekly close may spark more losses
Bitcoin falls further toward new August lows, ignoring positive US inflation trends while US stocks continue to circle all-time highs.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
Santiment: Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange supply is near all-time lows, reflecting increased investor confidence.
PANews reported on July 8 that, according to Cointelegraph, Santiment data shows that the supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum on exchanges is near all-time lows, with Bitcoin at its lowest level since 2017 and Ethereum at its lowest level since 2015, reflecting increased investor confidence.
VanEck executive: Strategy's $135 million Bitcoin sale last week did not use up its BTC Monetization Program quota.
According to ChainCatcher, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated on the X platform that, based on Strategy's latest 8-K filing, Strategy's $135 million Bitcoin sale last week did not utilize the $1.25 billion BTC Monetization Program quota. This is because the program only restricts sales used to replenish cash reserves; sales directly used to pay dividends are not included in this limit. Sigel points out that this means Strategy's actual Bitcoin sales capacity exceeds the commonly understood $1.25 billion.