CFTC expands regulatory relief for passive trading software providers
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The U.S. SEC released a statement on its 2026 regulatory agenda: promoting the trading of tokenized securities and advancing the development of crypto rules.
According to Odaily Odaily, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins released a statement regarding the 2026 regulatory agenda, indicating that the SEC will continue to advance a series of regulatory reforms, including adapting the regulatory framework to the current market environment, actively embracing innovation and new technologies, implementing President Trump's goal of "making America the global crypto capital," promoting the launch of more crypto-related products in the U.S. market, establishing clear rules for crypto asset financing, and clarifying the on-chain custody of market participants and promoting on-chain tokenized securities trading. Regarding capital market reforms, the U.S. SEC will advance its "Make IPOs Great Again" initiative, which aims to encourage more companies to enter the public market by reforming information disclosure systems and reducing compliance costs for companies seeking to go public, while maintaining necessary investor protection measures.
Shares of US-listed computing power rental service providers rose in pre-market trading, with Oracle and CoreWeave gaining nearly 3%.
Mars Finance reported on July 6th that US-listed computing power rental service providers rose in pre-market trading, with Oracle and CoreWeave up nearly 3%, Nebius up nearly 4%, and Google and Microsoft following suit. (KeGuBao Broadcast)
Kalshi's trading volume hit a record high of $9.4 billion in June, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion. Data shows that the World Cup has become the main catalyst for the growth in prediction market trading. As this World Cup expands to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has increased, driving active trading in single-match contracts. For example, the round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket. However, the rapid increase in trading volume has also further fueled regulatory controversy. Several US states continue to advocate that sports event contracts should be subject to betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event-based contracts may fall under the existing regulatory scope of binary options. Analysts believe that the World Cup demonstrated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or betting remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.
JPMorgan Chase: Semiconductor stocks' continued outperformance of cloud service providers may be unsustainable; AI trading may see sector rotation.
According to a report titled "Fund Flows and Liquidity: The Need for AI Rotation" released by JPMorgan Chase on July 3rd, semiconductor stocks—specifically, AI chip and memory manufacturers—have consistently and almost steadily outperformed hyperscale cloud service providers since September of last year. This performance gap appears unsustainable in the long term. The report argues that since semiconductor trading is inherently part of a broader AI market, the current divergence is raising concerns about its sustainability. JPMorgan Chase states that this gap could narrow in two ways. In a positive scenario, as hyperscale cloud providers, AI model providers, and users improve in commercialization, revenue, and profitability, their performance will begin to catch up, gaining a larger share of overall AI value-added. In a negative scenario, if the semiconductor outperformance comes at the expense of customers such as hyperscale cloud providers, AI model providers, or end users, it could dampen their willingness to invest in capital expenditures, ultimately hindering demand for semiconductor companies' products. The report notes that while JPMorgan Chase's internal view leans towards a more positive scenario, analysts' consensus forecast indicates a significant slowdown in hyperscale cloud service provider capital expenditure growth starting next year, which, if true, is closer to a negative scenario. The report states that hyperscale cloud service provider capital expenditure growth is projected to reach 100% in 2026, but may drop to 22% in 2027 and further to 7% in 2028. If this slowdown path holds true, semiconductor transactions could face significant pressure, triggering a more significant and sustained correction in AI transactions across the stock and bond markets. JPMorgan Chase also states that the price of AI computing power will be crucial for hyperscale cloud service providers to commercialize their AI capital expenditures. Higher computing power prices will enable cloud service providers to maintain or increase profit margins. Furthermore, the report states that the rate of money creation in the United States is projected to rise from $1.6 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2026, continuing to support US financial assets, particularly US stocks.
CFTC Opens Door for Crypto Apps to Offer Regulated Derivatives Access
In a no-action letter, the CFTC said certain software providers can connect users to regulated derivatives markets without registering as brokers.
Charles Schwab Expands Crypto Trading Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum
The brokerage will expand Schwab Crypto trading to Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink, but has not given a launch date for the three tokens.