The Bitcoin market has diverged after six weeks of US-Iran conflict, with institutions continuing to buy while whales and mining companies are accelerating their sell-off.
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Following the "end" of the US-Iran ceasefire, cryptocurrency and stock markets experienced widespread declines.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to CoinDesk, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships, and Iran subsequently attacked Kuwait and Bahrain. US President Trump announced the "end" of the ceasefire with Iran, calling the negotiations "meaningless," causing a sharp drop in global risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 2%, the CoinDesk 20 index fell by nearly 3%, and Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fell by about 1.5% at one point. In the crypto derivatives market, BTC futures open interest declined slightly, while ETH triggered approximately $90 million in long position liquidations during the price drop. Overall, the 24-hour crypto market saw approximately $450 million in liquidations, of which approximately $350 million came from Altcoin trading pairs. Altcoins generally fell, and Solana erased all gains since July.
Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, global markets were focused on the renewed deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The US not only expanded its military strikes against Iran but also revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, further escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged by approximately 5%, reflecting the market's re-inflation of energy supply uncertainty. The situation is no longer just a simple military conflict; rather, it involves a simultaneous increase in risks to energy transportation and the global supply chain. Iran continues to strengthen its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military has raised the local shipping threat level to "serious," indicating that global energy transportation remains highly volatile. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's plan to expand its Red Sea oil pipeline shows that major oil-producing countries have already planned alternative transportation routes to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that lower energy prices have helped improve short-term inflation, but policy remains in an appropriate position. He did not provide clear guidance on future interest rate direction, and the Fed will continue to adjust policy based on economic data. It is worth noting that the risks in the US technology sector have also increased simultaneously. Nasdaq 100 volatility has reached a two-decade high, with AI-related trading remaining highly concentrated. Some Wall Street institutions have begun using options for hedging and are gradually shifting funds towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting profit-taking pressure on highly valued tech stocks. In the crypto market, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Short-term market liquidity is mainly concentrated in four key liquidation zones: $62,500 and $60,000 on the downside, and $64,300 and $67,700 on the upside. With continued macroeconomic disruptions, prices may still see liquidity liquidation around highly leveraged positions, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high. The market will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
Analysts: Stablecoin market capitalization shrinks by over $3 billion per month, Bitcoin's rebound lacks "fuel" support.
PANews reported on July 8th that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that since mid-May, the stablecoin market has shifted from a source of liquidity to a source of liquidity depletion. The 30-day average inflow into stablecoin exchanges has fallen from $3.2 billion to $2.65 billion, 31% lower than the annual average of $3.86 billion; the combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC is shrinking at a rate exceeding $3 billion per month. The analyst points out that Bitcoin's 21% drop since mid-May is a direct consequence of this "fuel" shortage. Currently, the market is losing liquidity on two levels simultaneously: fewer new stablecoins are flowing into exchanges, and the dollar base itself is contracting. Improvement requires a reversal of both indicators—the 30-day average inflow returning above the annual average, and the monthly change in market capitalization returning to positive territory.
Polymarket launches Bitcoin Lightning Network instant deposits and integrates the Spark protocol.
BlockBeats reported on July 8th that prediction market platform Polymarket announced support for instant, self-custodied deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network, powered by the Spark protocol. Compared to the previous on-chain deposit method, which required 3 to 6 block confirmations and took approximately 10 to 60 minutes, the new solution achieves near-instantaneous deposits, lowering the deposit threshold and transaction costs. According to reports, Spark performs checks for double-spending risk, fees, and Replace-by-Fee (RBF) during transaction broadcasting, achieving "zero-confirmation" deposits. It also supports on-chain, Lightning Network, and stablecoin payment channels, eliminating the need for the platform to operate its own Lightning Network nodes. Polymarket stated that this move will further improve the efficiency of Bitcoin users' fund utilization and enhance its competitiveness against rival Kalshi.