On Polymarket, the probability of "Strategy selling any Bitcoin before the end of the year" has surged to 90%.
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Polymarket sued over dispute over Strategy's sale of a Bitcoin prediction market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, two plaintiffs filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, accusing it of breach of contract and deceptive conduct in a prediction market related to whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin by the end of May. According to the complaint filed on July 3rd in the New York State Supreme Court, plaintiffs William Wood and Thomas Bush named Polymarket, its CEO Shayne Coplan, Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber, and other related entities and individuals as defendants. The complaint alleges that the two plaintiffs held a "Yes" position in a binary prediction market that asked whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin holdings by May 31st. According to Strategy's Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company did sell 32 Bitcoins (BTC) between May 26th and 31st. However, the plaintiffs point out that Polymarket ultimately ruled the market "No." They stated that the platform added a clarification before settlement, effectively changing the criterion from "whether the sale was completed before May 31st" to "whether the sale was publicly confirmed before May 31st." Due to this change in criteria, although Strategy had sold Bitcoin within the deadline, the prediction market was ultimately ruled "no" on June 3rd via a UMA vote (the mechanism Polymarket uses to adjudicate disputed markets).
Strategy confirmed the sale of 3,588 BTC, raising $216 million, which will be used to pay dividends on digital credit securities.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Strategy Technologies announced on its official account that it had sold 3,588 bitcoins, raising $216 million to pay dividends on its digital credit securities. As of July 5th, the company's bitcoin reserves had decreased to 843,775 bitcoins, while its dollar reserves stood at $2.55 billion. This is Strategy Technologies' second publicly disclosed reduction in holdings this year, following the sale of 32 BTC between May 26th and 31st to cover preferred stock dividends. The significant increase in scale reflects the company's increasing reliance on selling some of its bitcoin reserves to maintain its dividend obligations amidst downward pressure on bitcoin prices and widening unrealized losses on its holdings.
Bernstein: Maintains year-end target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin; current pullback is still weaker than historical cycles.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, despite a roughly 54% drop in Bitcoin's price from its October 2025 high of nearly $125,000, Bernstein maintained its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the current pullback is significantly less than the 75% to 90% declines commonly seen at the end of historical cycles, indicating a shift in market structure. In the current context of low market sentiment, Wall Street's clear target prices provide a price anchor, while historical retracement frameworks help traders assess risk. If this cycle follows historical trends, the market may still decline further, but institutional assessments of the subsequent recovery are still worth noting. The firm points out that the previous high of nearly $125,000 in October 2025 remains a significant resistance level; based on a historical 75% retracement, the corresponding price is approximately $31,000, which can be considered a key failure zone. Going forward, we will focus on whether the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and spot demand will rebound, as these are important signals for judging whether the market has entered a recovery phase.
The probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing a merger before the end of September has dropped to 10% on Polymarket, and the stock has fallen 30% in the past 24 hours.
According to data from Polymarket's prediction market tool, the probability of Tesla and SpaceX officially announcing their merger by...? has decreased to 10% (a 30% drop in 24 hours) compared to the previous prediction of September 30, 2026; the probability of announcing the merger within the year, before December 31, 2026, has decreased to 25% (an 18% drop in 24 hours). Previously, it was reported that SpaceX would be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the US will block public access to major Chinese AI models by the end of 2026.
According to Odaily Odaily, Polymarket traders estimate there is a 23% probability that the U.S. government will block public access to major Chinese AI models by December 31, 2026, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal actions. Several departments within the U.S. Department of Commerce have already banned employees from using Deepseek on work devices due to data security concerns, and Virginia, Texas, and New York have also imposed bans on Deepseek devices for their state employees. (Bitcoin.com News)
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.