Kalshi's market bets indicate a 64.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in 2026.
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Bloomberg ETF analyst: US stocks are "too big to fail," and the Federal Reserve may purchase stock ETFs to rescue the market.
PANews reported on July 7th that Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, released research stating that the US stock market is gradually becoming a de facto "retirement fund" for Americans. With approximately 55% of Americans holding stocks and the "Trump Accounts" program expected to add about 28 million new investors, the link between the stock market and household wealth, pensions, and social stability is becoming increasingly close. He believes that in the next major bear market, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to purchase stock ETFs for the first time to stabilize the market, similar to its purchase of corporate bond ETFs in 2020, and the actions of the central banks of Japan and China. Balchunas believes that future political pressure will make a prolonged bear market increasingly intolerable, and the continued inflow of funds into ETFs on dips and investors' widespread expectation of government intervention also reflect this trend.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Opinion: Warsh should publicly resist Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and uphold the central bank's independence.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Levin published an article stating that US President Trump and his allies are continuously pushing to influence Federal Reserve decisions through personnel changes, including attempting to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook and interfering in the selection of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president, in order to expand the influence of White House supporters on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Levin believes that Kevin Warsh, considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair, should publicly oppose White House interference, support Jerome Powell and Cook to complete their terms, and demand that the White House withdraw from the selection process for regional Fed presidents; otherwise, his future credibility in leading the Fed and his influence within the committee will be weakened. The Fed's independence is key to maintaining stable inflation expectations and the credibility of monetary policy; continued political interference could damage the stability of the US macroeconomy.
Federal Reserve's Williams: Strong investment in AI is expected to continue.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Federal Reserve official Williams stated that he expects to continue seeing strong investment in artificial intelligence, that risks in the labor market are relatively balanced, and that his recent outlook on inflation is more positive due to energy prices. He added that the direction of monetary policy depends on data and risks, and that the Fed is prepared to achieve its goals. (Jinshi)
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.