This Week's Macro Outlook: US-Iran Talks Dominate Market Sentiment, Macro and Micro Data Drive Market Rationality
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Crypto Market Preview This Week: Fed Meeting Minutes to be Released, SpaceX to be Included in Nasdaq 100 Index
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, the crypto market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, US economic data, and several crypto industry events this week. The macro environment and on-chain dynamics may jointly influence the price movements of digital assets. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June FOMC meeting in the early hours of July 9th (Beijing time), with the market hoping to use this information to determine the future path of interest rates. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI, consumer inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, and China's June CPI data will also be released successively. On the industry front, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7th, becoming the fourth index component stock to hold Bitcoin, following Tesla, Strategy, and Mercado Libre. Data shows that SpaceX currently holds approximately 18,712 BTC, and its inclusion in the index is expected to benefit from the passive allocation demand of index funds. In addition, American Bitcoin (ABTC), a US mining company, will resume trading after completing a 1:15 reverse stock split to avoid delisting from Nasdaq; Berachain will complete its PoL Next upgrade on July 7. Regarding on-chain governance, ENS DAO, Frax DAO, Nexus Mutual DAO, and Arbitrum DAO will all conclude voting on multiple governance proposals this week. Regarding token unlocking, Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.2% of its circulating supply on July 6, worth approximately $30.39 million; RAIN will unlock approximately 7.64% of its circulating supply on July 11, worth approximately $787 million; and PUMP will unlock approximately 29.12% of its circulating supply on July 12, worth approximately $130 million. Besides macroeconomic data, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the continued weakening of the yen are also worth noting. Recently, Bitcoin has shown a strong negative correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, with the depreciation of the yen often accompanied by a rise in Bitcoin prices.
Following the "end" of the US-Iran ceasefire, cryptocurrency and stock markets experienced widespread declines.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to CoinDesk, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships, and Iran subsequently attacked Kuwait and Bahrain. US President Trump announced the "end" of the ceasefire with Iran, calling the negotiations "meaningless," causing a sharp drop in global risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by more than 2%, the CoinDesk 20 index fell by nearly 3%, and Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fell by about 1.5% at one point. In the crypto derivatives market, BTC futures open interest declined slightly, while ETH triggered approximately $90 million in long position liquidations during the price drop. Overall, the 24-hour crypto market saw approximately $450 million in liquidations, of which approximately $350 million came from Altcoin trading pairs. Altcoins generally fell, and Solana erased all gains since July.
South Korean stocks plunge 20%, nearing a bear market; the AI boom faces the awkward situation of "the more disastrous the earnings, the steeper the decline."
According to BlockBeats, on Wednesday afternoon, July 8th, South Korean stocks extended their losses as investors reassessed the outlook for AI demand. The KOSPI index fell by more than 6% at one point, breaking below 7200 points, and has cumulatively fallen by more than 20% from its all-time high last month, poised to enter technical bear market territory. Memory chip maker SK Hynix fell by as much as 5%, and Samsung Electronics fell by 6.9%. The Korea Exchange initiated a temporary trading halt on the KOSPI index, suspending algorithmic trading. South Korean stocks were among the strongest performing markets globally this year, but their performance is highly dependent on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, amplifying volatility when sector sentiment weakens. Even with Samsung Electronics announcing a 19-fold surge in quarterly profits earlier this week, chip stocks continued to be under pressure. Jordan Klein, a TMT sector expert at Mizuho Securities, stated that investors overreacted to Samsung's preliminary second-quarter results. He believes this sell-off in semiconductor stocks is more a sign of waning momentum than a deterioration in fundamentals. Klein stated that excluding one-off bonus expenses, Samsung's operating profit actually significantly exceeded expectations, with its storage business implied operating margin potentially exceeding 80%. He indicated that Samsung's single-quarter operating profit has already surpassed the total of the past three years, and reacting to Samsung's stock price based solely on preliminary results is "extremely short-sighted." Meanwhile, an AI trading rotation occurred in Asian markets. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks rose, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising as much as 3.4%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising over 5% intraday, Alibaba rising over 8%, and Tencent rising over 3%. Market analysts believe that funds are flowing from crowded trades focused on AI infrastructure to markets with lower valuations and more value-oriented characteristics. Reuters' report on DeepSeek's self-developed chip and The Information's report on Zhipu AI considering designing its own AI chip further fueled this rotation. (Jinshi)
Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, global markets were focused on the renewed deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The US not only expanded its military strikes against Iran but also revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, further escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged by approximately 5%, reflecting the market's re-inflation of energy supply uncertainty. The situation is no longer just a simple military conflict; rather, it involves a simultaneous increase in risks to energy transportation and the global supply chain. Iran continues to strengthen its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military has raised the local shipping threat level to "serious," indicating that global energy transportation remains highly volatile. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's plan to expand its Red Sea oil pipeline shows that major oil-producing countries have already planned alternative transportation routes to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that lower energy prices have helped improve short-term inflation, but policy remains in an appropriate position. He did not provide clear guidance on future interest rate direction, and the Fed will continue to adjust policy based on economic data. It is worth noting that the risks in the US technology sector have also increased simultaneously. Nasdaq 100 volatility has reached a two-decade high, with AI-related trading remaining highly concentrated. Some Wall Street institutions have begun using options for hedging and are gradually shifting funds towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting profit-taking pressure on highly valued tech stocks. In the crypto market, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Short-term market liquidity is mainly concentrated in four key liquidation zones: $62,500 and $60,000 on the downside, and $64,300 and $67,700 on the upside. With continued macroeconomic disruptions, prices may still see liquidity liquidation around highly leveraged positions, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high. The market will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.
A summary of the latest situation in the Middle East: Trump approves plan to strike Iran; Iran believes the US will cause peace talks to fail.
BlockBeats reports the following is a summary of the latest situation in the Middle East on July 8th: Conflict Situation: Trump approved the strike plan against Iran. US officials stated that the strike against Iran was a "punitive action, not a reciprocal response," and that the operation "will not end anytime soon." A US official stated that the strike launched by the US against Iran on Tuesday was four to five times larger and more powerful than the strike launched 10 days earlier. The US revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, allowing related final transactions to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17th. This move is reportedly in response to Iran's recent firing on three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that some merchant ships were sailing without coordination and had turned off or tampered with AIS signals, hindering safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It urged regional countries and shipping companies to avoid any actions that violate the memorandum. The U.S. Central Command stated that its forces have initiated a series of powerful strikes against Iran in response to Iranian targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways. Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the U.S. Treasury Department's revocation of the temporary suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. U.S.-Iran Negotiations: Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that if the threats persist, negotiations for a final agreement will not begin; please honor your commitments. Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor, Rezaei, stated that it is clear the U.S. will cause the negotiations to fail. Lebanese diplomatic sources indicated that Lebanon refused to hold the sixth round of Lebanon-Israel talks in Rome, insisting that negotiations should continue in Washington. Strait of Hormuz: A liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier was attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Multiple explosions occurred in the southern Iranian port city of Sirik. Explosions were heard on Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas in southern Iran. British Maritime Authority: The threat level in the Strait of Hormuz has been raised to "serious".
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.