Citrini观点：英特尔产品组合与定价能力正在改善，Q2服务器CPU出货量份额下滑但营收上升
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Bank of America raised its CPU market size forecast due to AI demand and also raised its price targets for AMD, ARM, and Intel.
According to Mars Finance, on June 11, Bank of America raised its forecast for the server CPU market size, citing AI demand as the primary driver. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stated that driven by demand for agentic AI, Bank of America increased its forecast for the total potential market size of server CPUs by 2030 from $125 billion to over $170 billion. He believes that AI systems capable of planning and executing multi-step tasks will further increase CPU usage beyond accelerators. Bank of America also raised its target prices for AMD, ARM, and Intel, citing enhanced long-term semiconductor growth prospects and continued expansion in chip demand.
Citrini analyst Jukan: MediaTek reportedly has secured Meta as an ASIC customer, following its TPU offerings.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, Odaily Odaily, supply chain sources indicate that MediaTek has essentially secured a second ASIC customer besides Google. If all goes as planned, this customer will be Meta, previously rumored. MediaTek, as is customary, does not publicly comment on individual products, customer situations, or market rumors. While Qualcomm currently appears to have key customers such as Meta, Microsoft, and ByteDance, industry insiders believe that MediaTek's continued deepening of its cooperation with Google and its potential to secure a second customer puts it at a disadvantage. Semiconductor supply chain sources state that, considering the order prospects and generational transition pace of major cloud service providers for AI data centers and ASIC products, Google remains the most aggressive and proactive major customer. MediaTek not only has two products codenamed Zebrafish and Humufish, but according to market information and confirmation from industry insiders familiar with ASICs, its participation in the v9 generation Triggerfish is almost certain. This means that from the end of 2026 to 2028, and even into 2029, MediaTek can reliably receive revenue contributions from TPU mass production. Compared to Qualcomm's $15 billion cloud AI revenue target for 2029, it's only a matter of time before MediaTek, holding multiple TPU ASIC orders, reaches the $10 billion level. The industry is also focused on whether MediaTek can successfully secure its second major cloud service provider client. Based on earlier market information and recent supply chain confirmations, MediaTek is still actively collaborating with Meta on ASIC products, likely focusing on AI acceleration chips. Meta recently partnered with Arm and Qualcomm, but the products are all CPU-oriented, with no further concrete news regarding its self-developed AI acceleration chips. IC design industry insiders say that Meta's recent cloud AI development strategy has indeed been rather chaotic and unclear, with multiple adjustments to its internal chip development plans, seeking multiple partners and adopting different solutions in the CPU field alone. Regarding AI acceleration chips, although Meta has officially announced its collaboration with Broadcom, supply chain sources indicate that this has not interrupted the ongoing collaboration between MediaTek and Meta. IC design industry professionals also emphasized that MediaTek and Qualcomm's cloud AI development blueprints are still significantly different. MediaTek is concentrating all its resources on ASIC business, while Qualcomm plans to simultaneously promote customization and standardization, while also covering AI acceleration chips and CPU products.
Citrini analyst Jukan: Samsung Foundry achieved monthly profitability in June, its first since 2023.
According to a post on the X platform by Citrini analyst Jukan, as reported by Odaily Korean media, Samsung Foundry achieved monthly profitability in June, its first such month since 2023. With this positive profit in June, Samsung internally believes the likelihood of a profit turnaround starting in the third quarter has increased. The use of Samsung's 4nm process for HBM4 base dies is considered a key factor driving this turnaround, while improved yield rates are also seen as a major factor supporting the positive monthly profit. Industry sources estimate that Samsung's 4nm process yield has improved to approximately 80%.
UBS and TD Cowen significantly raise their target prices for Arm, betting on a revaluation of AI data center CPUs.
According to Mars Finance, on June 25th, Arm's stock price corrected this week following the overvalued AI sector. However, some Wall Street analysts believe that this adjustment has not changed the company's long-term position in AI data centers. UBS significantly raised its target price for Arm from $260 to $470, maintaining a buy rating; TD Cowen raised its target price from $265 to $475, also maintaining a buy rating. Both institutions agree that with the development of AI, the importance of CPUs in data center architecture may increase, rather than GPUs continuing to dominate the investment narrative. TD Cowen believes that in the long term, CPUs may have a better strategic position in some AI workloads. UBS, on the other hand, emphasizes that the real debate in the market is about the revenue potential of Arm's self-developed or independent CPU business. The bank expects Arm's CPU-related revenue to reach approximately $14 billion by 2030, although the company itself states that this business will not have a substantial financial impact until fiscal year 2028. Arm's strengths lie in its low latency and energy efficiency, metrics that major cloud vendors are increasingly valuing in their AI infrastructure expansion. Even with a short-term pullback in its stock price from its highs, analysts still consider Arm one of the main beneficiaries of the server CPU upgrade cycle.
Citrini researcher Jukan: Citibank report makes conservative assumptions; Micron Technology (MU)'s performance this quarter may exceed expectations.
According to Odaily Odaily, Jukan, a researcher at the well-known investment research firm Citrini, published an article on the X platform stating that after reading Citibank's earnings preview report, he believes that the institution's assumptions regarding Micron Technology's product pricing are too conservative. If the market consensus is at that level, Micron Technology may have exceeded expectations this quarter. Data shows that Micron Technology (MU) stock is currently trading at $1133.99. Previously, several institutions raised their target price for Micron Technology (MU) to between $1200 and $1500, among which: Citigroup raised its price target for Micron Technology to $1,200; Wedbush raised its price target for Micron Technology to $1,300. Deutsche Bank and investment bank Stifel have raised their target price for Micron to $1,500.
Citrini: AMD and Apple are simultaneously pushing forward with flash memory solutions to replace DRAM in AI products.
According to Mars Finance, on June 16th, Citrini Research, the organization behind the "AI Doomsday Report," published an article stating that AMD and Apple are simultaneously advancing solutions to partially replace DRAM with flash memory in their AI products. AMD acquired MEXT to optimize flash memory, bringing its performance close to DRAM, thereby reducing memory costs in AI data centers; Apple, on the other hand, achieves similar optimizations on the device side through its "LLM in a flash" technology. Citrini's latest research report highlights the high memory demands of key-value caching in AI inference, and the "memory tax" pressure from HBM (Hardware Bus) already accounting for 25% of DRAM capacity. Flash memory, costing only 1/55th that of DRAM, can provide a capacity and bandwidth alternative for edge AI through controller optimization, NAND stacking, and cell mode adjustments. This report provides theoretical support for the recent surge in memory stocks, particularly SanDisk.