Analysis: BTC lacks historical price support in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.
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Analysis: The target range for this weak Bitcoin rebound is $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 being the ceiling for a short-term rebound in the bear market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 4th, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of current short-term Bitcoin holdings (held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through this range to gradually bring the cost trend line together. However, each attempt to break through triggers some weak holders to cash out when unrealized losses turn into unrealized profits. This cycle of "breakout—resistance—pullback—breakout again" is a necessary process for forming a bottom consensus. Based on this, the analyst divides the expected rebound into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is the realized price (STH-RP) for short-term holders, which is often considered the ceiling for a bear market rebound. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the sentiment bull-bear dividing line; every trend reversal begins with the last breakout above this line. Analysts personally favor a "weak rebound," predicting a move to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. A break above $70,000 would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point partial profit-taking on existing positions would be considered to allow for future adjustments. Options market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state around $62,000; hedging near this level will suppress volatility. After a breakout, the next positive Gamma level falls precisely between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming a resistance zone.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
Michael Saylor: If Bitcoin's long-term price increase exceeds 3.3%, BTC capital gains could fund STRC dividends indefinitely.
According to ChainCatcher, Bitcoin Treasuries.NET posted on the X platform that Strategy's Michael Saylor stated that if Bitcoin's long-term price increase exceeds 3.3%, BTC capital gains can fund STRC dividends indefinitely. Even if BTC's annual price increase is 0%, Strategy will still have dividend funds for 31 years.
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Bernstein: Maintains year-end target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin; current pullback is still weaker than historical cycles.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, despite a roughly 54% drop in Bitcoin's price from its October 2025 high of nearly $125,000, Bernstein maintained its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the current pullback is significantly less than the 75% to 90% declines commonly seen at the end of historical cycles, indicating a shift in market structure. In the current context of low market sentiment, Wall Street's clear target prices provide a price anchor, while historical retracement frameworks help traders assess risk. If this cycle follows historical trends, the market may still decline further, but institutional assessments of the subsequent recovery are still worth noting. The firm points out that the previous high of nearly $125,000 in October 2025 remains a significant resistance level; based on a historical 75% retracement, the corresponding price is approximately $31,000, which can be considered a key failure zone. Going forward, we will focus on whether the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs and spot demand will rebound, as these are important signals for judging whether the market has entered a recovery phase.
Analysis: The Bitcoin "buy the dips index" AHR999 has dropped to 0.32, near its historical low.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, analyst Gaah wrote that the Bitcoin AHR999 index has currently fallen to 0.32, near its historical low. This indicator measures the deviation of Bitcoin's current price from its long-term fair value and is often used to develop Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategies. When the AHR999 index is below the "buy zone," it is generally considered a good time to allocate for the long term, helping to avoid chasing high prices during rapid increases. Currently, Bitcoin is in a phase of finding a bottom and attempting to reverse its bear market trend, and the overall risk-reward ratio has become quite attractive.