Bitunix analysts: Energy prices are once again dominating US inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to confront the risk of "reflation."

According to Mars Finance, on May 13th, CPI data showed that energy price shocks are once again dominating the structure of US inflation and are beginning to spread to housing, services, and consumption. The latest US April CPI annual growth rate rose to 3.8%, higher than market expectations and reaching a new high since May 2023; the core CPI annual growth rate rose to 2.8%, also higher than expected. This indicates that even though the Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates for the past two years, US inflation has not truly returned to a stable state, but rather shows signs of resurgence due to the Middle East war and energy supply risks. The biggest driver of this inflation is still energy. Energy prices rose 17.9% year-on-year in April, with gasoline prices rising by a staggering 28.4% and fuel oil prices surging by 54.3%, indicating that the risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East supply chain issues have begun to substantially impact the US economy. Although some institutions believe that the energy shock has not yet fully spilled over to all commodities, the market is beginning to notice that inflationary pressures are no longer limited to oil prices themselves. Housing costs rose 0.6% in a single month, with clothing, household goods, and airfares all increasing, indicating that businesses have begun to gradually pass on higher energy, transportation, and import costs to consumers. This is the market's biggest concern. If energy prices are only short-term fluctuations, the Federal Reserve can choose to ignore them; however, when housing, services, and core consumer spending are all under pressure, it means the US may be re-entering a phase of "structural reflation." In particular, the current 0.45% monthly increase in core service sector prices is one of the highest this year, showing that domestic demand and cost pressures have not truly cooled down. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and oil prices fall in the future, the "long-tail effect" of inflation may still persist for months through transportation, food, and rent. Against this backdrop, the market's perception of the Federal Reserve's policy path has begun to shift significantly. Interest rate futures have repriced the possibility of future rate hikes, and there are even expectations of additional rate hikes by the end of the year. Federal Reserve officials have also recently become noticeably hawkish, with Goolsby admitting that the inflation data was "disappointing" and believing that the US economy may still be overheated. Goldman Sachs further stated that "high interest rates persisting longer" is becoming the main market theme, with energy shocks and economic resilience driving the dollar's strength and US Treasury yields likely to remain high. On the other hand, another noteworthy new theme in the market is the formal financialization of AI computing power. The CME Group announced plans to launch the world's first GPU computing power futures market, indicating that the market has begun to view AI computing power as a new type of strategic commodity similar to oil and metals. This reflects the continued expansion of global AI capital expenditure, with GPU, CPU, and memory demand forming a new long-term capital cycle. In the crypto market, while BTC is currently still fluctuating, its market structure may be suppressed by "extended high interest rates" and a "strengthening dollar." If oil prices and inflation continue to remain high, US Treasury yields and the dollar may rise further, compressing market risk appetite. The real change in the current market is that the world is gradually shifting from the "de-inflation trade" of the past two years to a new era of inflation, repricing energy, geopolitics, and supply chains.