Bitunix Analyst: From Forward Guidance to Policy Fog, the Warsh Era Officially Begins a Global Volatility Reassessment

According to Mars Finance, on June 22, the core focus of global markets has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to monetary policy and liquidity reassessment. Although the US-Iran talks in Switzerland achieved some progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a high-level political oversight committee and develop a 60-day roadmap for a final agreement, the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully returned to normal operation. Significant differences remain between Iran and the US regarding Lebanon and oil sanctions waivers, and geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated. The energy market is beginning to reflect expectations of supply recovery. Libyan oil production has risen to its highest level since 2013, Iraq plans to gradually restore its pre-conflict production capacity, and Qatar has begun preparations to restart LNG exports. The market is reassessing the impact of the Middle East supply chain recovery on global energy prices and inflation paths, with the supply shock previously caused by the war gradually being replaced by the return of supply. However, the real driver of market pricing is now the Federal Reserve's policy shift. The interest rate market has already fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, and Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its gold target price and predicts no rate cuts this year. Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's continued push to weaken forward guidance and the dot plot mechanism has significantly increased market uncertainty regarding the policy path. From the continued rise in US Treasury yields and the sustained strength of the US dollar index to the large-scale unwinding of global carry trades, all indicate that funds are flowing back into the dollar system. Meanwhile, following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, although the Japanese government has expressed support for policy normalization, the market has begun to focus on the scope for further rate hikes and the risk of yen intervention. The Japanese Ministry of Finance's public warning of action against foreign exchange speculation also reflects that major central banks worldwide are gradually entering a tighter policy environment. For the crypto market, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East situation, but the liquidity pressure brought about by the continued rise in global funding costs. While declining energy risks help alleviate inflation concerns, a stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of a Fed rate hike will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. As the market begins to trade in "longer high interest rates" or even "another rate hike," the key for the crypto market has shifted from geopolitical events to whether new sources of liquidity will emerge.