Bitcoin to $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen
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Opinion: The simple model for Bitcoin is over; the next bull market will require trillions of dollars in institutional funding.
According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's capital efficiency is declining significantly. In 2011, only $2.7 billion in net capital inflow was needed to drive a 55,436% price surge, while in the current cycle, $697 billion in net inflow has only resulted in a 689% increase. A more direct comparison is that the realized market capitalization required to double Bitcoin's price has ballooned from approximately $5 million in 2011 to approximately $101 billion in the current cycle, a decrease in efficiency of over 2000 times. "Realized market capitalization" represents the actual capital absorbed on-chain based on the last moving average price, rather than the theoretical market capitalization formed by the order book, thus more accurately reflecting the volume of funds entering the market. Despite the seemingly grim data, Ki Young Ju remains optimistic about BTC, believing that the next parabolic bull market requires deeper institutional allocation—Bitcoin cannot be driven solely by retail investors and ETFs; it must become a core macro asset, and this transformation is still in its early stages. Ki Young Ju points out that if Bitcoin can absorb over $1 trillion in realized market capitalization, another parabolic bull market is still within the realm of possibility. Compared to gold's market capitalization of approximately $27 trillion, the potential for large-scale institutional adoption of Bitcoin remains enormous. The next major bull market will require trillions of dollars in net capital inflows. The "simple model" is over, but the "institutional model" is just beginning.
JPMorgan boosts Bitcoin, Ether ETF positions in Q2 filing
JPMorgan reported a 25% increase in its Bitcoin ETF position and more than quadrupled its Ether ETF position in the second quarter.
Polymarket launches Bitcoin Lightning Network instant deposits and integrates the Spark protocol.
BlockBeats reported on July 8th that prediction market platform Polymarket announced support for instant, self-custodied deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network, powered by the Spark protocol. Compared to the previous on-chain deposit method, which required 3 to 6 block confirmations and took approximately 10 to 60 minutes, the new solution achieves near-instantaneous deposits, lowering the deposit threshold and transaction costs. According to reports, Spark performs checks for double-spending risk, fees, and Replace-by-Fee (RBF) during transaction broadcasting, achieving "zero-confirmation" deposits. It also supports on-chain, Lightning Network, and stablecoin payment channels, eliminating the need for the platform to operate its own Lightning Network nodes. Polymarket stated that this move will further improve the efficiency of Bitcoin users' fund utilization and enhance its competitiveness against rival Kalshi.
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.
Wintermute: Bitcoin's rise is more in line with the characteristics of a "relief rally" than the start of a new bull market.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that the latest US non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, coupled with Warsh's speech being interpreted as dovish, driving a general rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market performing the best. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both significantly outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recently. Bitcoin's current rally has a more solid foundation, mainly driven by continued whale buying, options fund flows towards call options, and improved on-chain data. The end of net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs also boosted market sentiment. The cooling US job market has further reduced market expectations for interest rate hikes this year, while Warsh reiterated the 2% inflation target at the Sintra Forum but did not release more hawkish signals, which investors interpreted as a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the crypto market, on-chain data shows that whale wallets have accumulated over 270,000 BTC near the 200-week moving average, while options market funds have shifted from hedging positions to call options with strike prices of $60,000 to $70,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum's rise is largely driven by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and the continued progress of institutional tokenization infrastructure. However, the Ethereum Foundation's recent layoffs of approximately 20% and budget cuts of about 40%, along with previous outflows from ETH ETFs, still reflect some pressure on its fundamentals. This round of gains is more characteristic of a "relief rebound" than the start of a new long-term bull market. Improved macroeconomic environment, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional investment in Ethereum, and low liquidity during the summer have all contributed to the market recovery. However, from a funding perspective, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF fund flows continue to improve and form a trend, the market should still view the current situation as a sentiment correction rather than a structural reversal, and remain cautious about the future.
Bloomberg: Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan faces legal and jurisdictional obstacles.
According to Odaily, the strategic Bitcoin reserve program promoted by US President Trump is facing legal and jurisdictional issues, with the core controversy being whether the US Treasury Department has the legal right to manage the reserve. Early in his presidency, Trump proposed establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, primarily funded by the U.S. government's criminal or civil seizures of existing Bitcoin holdings, and a separate digital asset inventory. Related executive orders also required the Treasury and Commerce Departments to develop a "budget-neutral" Bitcoin acquisition strategy, meaning it should not increase taxpayer costs. However, sources say the debate surrounding the reserve has now shifted to whether it should be placed under the Commerce Department, rather than the Treasury Department. Another point of contention is whether the U.S. government can hold BTC "indefinitely," given its price volatility. White House spokeswoman Liz Huston said the Trump administration is still evaluating the optimal structure for its strategic Bitcoin reserve and U.S. digital asset inventory to deliver on its vision of making the U.S. a global hub for cryptocurrency and cutting-edge technology. (The Block)