U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, below the expected 110,000.
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The US unemployment rate was 4.2% in June, below the expected 4.30% and the previous reading of 4.30%.
According to BlockBeats, on July 2nd, the US unemployment rate for June was 4.2%, below the expected 4.30% and the previous month's figure. (Jinshi)
Citigroup: The case for raising interest rates has disappeared; the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts in October.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Citigroup Research stated in its weekly US economic report released on July 2nd that the significantly weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in June strongly refuted the necessity of raising interest rates. Citigroup believes that several factors previously supporting a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerating wage growth, and core PCE exceeding the target, have faded, and "the rationale for raising rates has disappeared." Data shows that US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised downward by a combined 74,000. After the revision, the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls over the past three months fell to approximately 111,000, a significant drop from the pre-revision level of over 180,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.296% to 4.189% in June, but Citigroup believes this was mainly due to the labor force participation rate falling from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the actual unemployment rate would have risen to over 4.5%. Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowdown in housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. Furthermore, the revised core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment method for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the revised core PCE year-on-year growth rate may be lowered by 20 to 30 basis points, and will be officially reflected in September. Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at the July and September FOMC meetings, cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time at the October 28 meeting, and then cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal interest rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.
The credibility of US employment data is being questioned; the non-farm payrolls "lifeline": if the increase is below 150,000, the Fed is almost certain not to raise interest rates.
According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, with the June non-farm payroll report about to be released (moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday), the market is showing significant disagreement regarding the accuracy of current US employment data. From March to May this year, the US averaged 188,000 new jobs per month, marking the strongest hiring cycle in three years. However, industry insiders worry that this figure may be inflated: one-off factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary work related to the World Cup have pushed up the data, and the spring and summer employment trend often shows a "peak followed by a decline." Analysts point out that June's new jobs need to reach or exceed Wall Street's consensus forecast of 110,000 to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If it significantly exceeds expectations by 150,000 or more, the Federal Reserve might seriously consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting this month; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed will almost certainly maintain interest rates unchanged. Other key observations include: • The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and still at a historically low level; • Recruitment is gradually diversifying across industries, moving away from the previous dominance of the healthcare sector; • Year-on-year wage growth is expected to remain around 3.5%, with no significant inflationary pressure yet. Analysts believe that although the labor market is currently recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need further verification from the June non-farm payrolls report.
The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 was 215,000, compared to an expected 220,000.
According to BlockBeats, on July 2nd, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 27th was 215,000, lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous week's figure revised from 215,000 to 216,000. (Jinshi)
Surprise nonfarm payrolls print sends Bitcoin back below 80K
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in August, pressuring Bitcoin lower as traders repriced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
Data: CME Group's average daily trading volume for cryptocurrency contracts in June increased by 76% year-on-year, with a notional value exceeding $10 billion.
According to Mars Finance, data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) shows that its average daily trading volume (ADV) in June reached a new record of 30.6 million contracts, a year-on-year increase of 19%; second-quarter trading volume reached 29.8 million contracts, the second highest on record. In the cryptocurrency sector, CME Group's average daily trading volume for cryptocurrency futures contracts in June increased by 76% year-on-year to 334,000 contracts, with a notional value of approximately $10.7 billion. Among these, the average daily trading volume for micro Bitcoin futures contracts increased by 46% to 77,000 contracts. In the second quarter, the average daily trading volume for cryptocurrency futures contracts reached 250,000 contracts, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with a notional value of approximately $13.7 billion. Among these, the average daily trading volume for Ethereum futures contracts increased by 10% to 18,000 contracts.