The US-Iran peace agreement has released a large amount of crude oil supply, reigniting concerns about a global supply glut.
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The US revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, leaving approximately 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded at sea.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, Bloomberg cited Vortexa data, after the US revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, approximately 63 million barrels of Iranian crude oil are currently stranded at sea, with most tankers anchored in the Persian Gulf and Asian waters, and no buyers have yet been found. Previously, the US had allowed Iran to sell crude oil within 60 days without sanctions, but this week revoked the waivers citing Iran's attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a significant amount of already loaded crude oil facing sales difficulties. Market analysts stated that Iranian crude oil exports are once again under pressure due to factors such as sudden changes in US policy, European and American sanctions, and insurance restrictions. Apart from China, no Asian refineries have publicly purchased Iranian crude oil, and industry insiders expect Iran may need to further increase discounts to attract overseas buyers.
EIA: Most crude oil production will recover to pre-war levels by the end of this year.
Odaily Odaily reports that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, noting that on June 18, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz. With the signing of the agreement and increased traffic through the strait, we have raised our forecast for global oil production for the remainder of this year. We now expect most crude oil production to recover to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, and most of the shut-down crude oil production to come online in the first quarter of 2027. (Jinshi)
Saudi Arabia drastically cut crude oil prices, with the largest drop in at least 26 years.
Odaily Odaily reports that Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for key crude oil grades to Asian customers in August, the largest reduction in at least 26 years, as surging global supply intensifies competition for buyers. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of its Arab Light crude oil exports to Asia by $11 per barrel in August, representing a discount of $1.50 per barrel to the regional benchmark price. This reduction is larger than the $8 per barrel expected in institutional surveys. Middle Eastern crude oil prices have recently declined. After resuming exports from the Rastanura port on the Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco had increased its crude oil shipments to approximately 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Rastanula was Saudi Arabia's main port of call for crude oil exports. Due to the war's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Previously, the OPEC+ oil-producing group had agreed to continue a small production increase in August. Now, with the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jinshi)
Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by about $1 in the short term, while spot gold rose by about $20 in the short term.
According to Odaily data, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by about $1 in the short term, while spot gold rose by about $20. In terms of news, Trump did not reiterate his intention to terminate the interim agreement with Iran during the NATO summit.
Trump says the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has ended.
BlockBeats reported on July 8 that US President Trump stated that the temporary ceasefire agreement he reached with Iran had ended, increasing the possibility of a renewed military conflict between the two countries. "For me, I think it's over," he said at the annual NATO summit on Wednesday. "As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time." Trump's remarks came shortly after the US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran and revoked waivers allowing the sale of Iranian oil. These actions were a response to the recent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, bringing new volatility to energy markets and testing the already fragile peace agreement between the US and Iran. Trump stated, "I don't want to deal with them, but they're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people, led by sick people, they're vicious and violent people, and if they had nuclear weapons, they would use them." However, Trump indicated he would not prevent negotiators from continuing contact, although he expressed pessimism about this strategy. He said, "They have problems, they're crazy. They can talk, but I think they're wasting their time." (Jinshi)
Less than 20 days after the ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation has changed again: the US has intensified its attacks on Iran, revoked oil waivers, and increased the scale of its strikes fivefold.
PANews reported on July 8 that, according to Jinshi News, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked a waiver allowing it to sell oil globally. This move further jeopardizes the peace agreement between the two countries following frequent attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command issued a statement on the X platform stating that this "powerful strike" was intended to "impose a heavy price on attacks and harassment of merchant ships carrying innocent civilians in international waters," and that Iran's aggression was "unjustified, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement." According to the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7, the U.S. revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, with the remaining transactions allowed to continue until midnight Eastern Time on July 17.