Goldman Sachs: AI investment focus shifts to real-world industries; capital expenditure could reach $7.6 trillion over the next 6 years.
Related
Goldman Sachs: World Model May Become a New Engine for Future AI Infrastructure, Adding New Computing Demands
According to Mars Finance, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report that "world models" may become the second engine of future AI infrastructure demand. Unlike large language models, which primarily process text and images, world models attempt to understand causal relationships in physical and social systems, such as simulating friction, material behavior, supply chain responses, policy shocks, or corporate competitive strategies. Physical world models will support robotics, logistics, autonomous driving, and industrial design; social world models may be used for strategic extrapolation, investment decisions, governance stress testing, and policy scenario analysis. Goldman Sachs believes that world models will not replace large language models, but rather superimpose new computing demands. If their development speed exceeds expectations, current investment forecasts surrounding computing power and electricity may still be underestimated. (Cailian Press)
South Korea, together with Samsung, SK and other companies, launched a 312 trillion won investment plan, focusing on the semiconductor and aerospace industries.
According to Mars Finance, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Koo Yoon-cheol announced on July 3 that the country will encourage major corporations to invest over 312 trillion won (approximately US$204 billion) in the southeastern region (Yeongnam region) to develop advanced manufacturing and AI industries. Specifically, SK Group, Samsung, Hanwha, and Hyundai Motor will invest approximately 140 trillion won, 60 trillion won, 55 trillion won, and 42 trillion won respectively, focusing on semiconductors, AI, and aerospace. LG and Doosan will also follow suit with investments. In addition, South Korea also announced a national space strategy centered on Sacheon, aiming to create a southern coastal aerospace industry belt. (Cailian Press)
Goldman Sachs: Buy on dips in chip stocks, but avoid "buying a basket of chips" again.
According to Mars Finance, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report on July 7th that semiconductor stocks still present investment opportunities after the recent pullback, but AI chip trading has entered a more selective phase, and investors should no longer simply buy the entire sector. The bank pointed out that the PHLX Semiconductor Index has risen by over 80% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. This strong performance has raised the bar for subsequent earnings realization and made the risk-reward ratio more differentiated ahead of the Q2 earnings season. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about certain sub-sectors, including CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment. Goldman Sachs believes these areas will benefit more directly from the expansion of AI infrastructure and have relatively higher demand visibility. In terms of individual stocks, Goldman Sachs specifically mentioned AMD and Applied Materials. AMD benefits from server CPU and AI-related demand, while Applied Materials benefits from advanced process technology and memory capital expenditure. However, Goldman Sachs is more cautious about the mobile phone supply chain and some semiconductor companies with high valuations or weak demand.
Goldman Sachs: The global humanoid robot market will grow from approximately 20,000 units in 2025 to 1.4 million units in 2035.
According to Mars Finance, Goldman Sachs stated that another path for AI to enter the real world is through robots, autonomous driving devices, drones, and intelligent industrial equipment. Goldman Sachs calls this "physical AI," which is far more challenging than text generation models because machines must not only understand language and images but also handle gravity, friction, materials, temperature, motion trajectories, and safety constraints. Humanoid robots are the most anticipated area. Goldman Sachs predicts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from approximately 20,000 units in 2025 to 1.4 million units in 2035. This demand is based on labor shortages: the US manufacturing sector employs approximately 13 million people, with a shortage of over 1 million material handling jobs. Goldman Sachs expects widespread commercial deployment of humanoid robots to not occur until 2027 to 2029. (Cailian Press)
Goldman Sachs: South Korean stocks are expected to see a broad-based rally in the second half of the year; maintains KOSPI target of 12,000 points.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more sectors including energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities. Regarding market concerns about a bubble in the South Korean stock market, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in margin balances is mainly due to the growth of leveraged ETF net asset value, rather than new borrowing by investors. South Korean residents' assets are still mainly in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows. Goldman Sachs predicts that South Korean companies' overall net profit will increase by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026 and will maintain a growth rate of approximately 35% in 2027. It maintains its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), representing an upside of over 20% from current levels, but expects increased market volatility in the future.
Goldman Sachs injects a strong boost into South Korean stocks: another 20% rise in the second half of the year! Market leverage risk is overestimated, and opportunities will spread to six main themes.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released its second-half strategy framework for the South Korean stock market, maintaining its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI index, representing over 20% upside from current levels. The core support comes from a 320% year-on-year earnings growth forecast and a forward P/E ratio of only 6.65. This indicator is 2.7 standard deviations below its historical average, the lowest since 2009. In the first half of the year, South Korean stocks led Asia with a 92% gain, but this growth was primarily driven by upward revisions to earnings rather than valuation expansion: forward EPS was revised upwards by nearly 200%, while the forward P/E ratio actually compressed slightly. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix contributed nearly 90% of the index's gains, with their combined market capitalization weight rising to 56% and their earnings weight reaching 72%. Goldman Sachs believes this concentration reflects earnings more accurately than a bubble, but market breadth has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, and continued gains in the second half of the year will likely lead to increased volatility. Regarding retail investor concerns, Goldman Sachs points out that leverage levels are overvalued. The growth in leveraged ETF size is primarily driven by asset appreciation rather than new leveraged funds. The margin loan-to-deposit ratio is actually declining, indicating that retail investors still hold substantial cash reserves and their asset allocation remains heavily focused on real estate. Goldman Sachs believes that opportunities in the Korean stock market in the second half of the year will expand from memory chips to six main themes: the industrial sector (accelerated defense orders, unmet demand for VLCC replacements), robotics and physical AI (Korea's auto parts ecosystem is expected to become a core supplier of humanoid robots), batteries and power infrastructure (driven by data center energy storage demand), beneficiaries of corporate governance reforms (multiple regulations implemented since July, with over 70% of listed companies having a PBR below 1), reflation trading (semiconductor profit spillover effects driving upward revisions to GDP and extending the interest rate hike cycle), and the semiconductor capital expenditure supply chain (the government plans to invest 800 trillion won in three major projects). Goldman Sachs also warns of three risks: seasonal weakness in the third quarter, technical correction pressure from a significant deviation of the index from the moving average, and amplified volatility due to hedging operations by leveraged ETF market makers. The combination of earnings growth and low valuations makes South Korea the market with the lowest PEG ratio in Asia, and the current valuation misalignment provides significant room for stock selection in the second half of the year.