predict.fun "Mbappe's probability of winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot surpasses Messi's, Haaland rises to third"
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Polymarket's World Cup title prediction market trading volume surpasses $3.9 billion, with France's probability of winning rising to 35.1%.
According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Odaily, the cumulative trading volume in the 2026 World Cup champion prediction market has exceeded $3.9 billion. France's probability of winning has risen to 35.1%, corresponding to a trading volume of over $94.5 million; Argentina ranks second with 16.8%, with a trading volume of $99.99 million; and Spain ranks third with 12.3%.
Predict.funWorld Cup Knockout Stage: Argentina's chance of advancing reaches 85%, Egypt's chance of an upset is only 14%
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, data from the prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that in the Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt in the 2026 USA-CMC World Cup, the market gives Argentina an approximately 85% probability of advancing, while Egypt has an approximately 14% probability. Traders generally favor the defending champions, Argentina, to advance to the quarterfinals. It's worth noting that both teams battled for 120 minutes in their previous matches before narrowly advancing. Argentina eliminated Cape Verde in extra time, but their defense and physical condition were tested; Egypt defeated Australia in a penalty shootout, achieving their best-ever World Cup result. This match will also see Messi and Salah face off directly in the World Cup for the first time.
Predict.funWorld Cup Knockout Stage: USA has a 54% chance of advancing, Belgium receives 47% market support
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, data from the prediction market platform [_2024111120230_] shows that in the Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium in the 2026 USA-CMC World Cup, the market assigns approximately a 54% probability of the United States advancing and a 47% probability of Belgium advancing. The support for both sides is very close, with traders only slightly favoring the host nation, the United States, to advance to the quarterfinals. It is worth noting that this is one of the most divergent matchups in the Round of 16 of this World Cup. The United States has the home advantage and has demonstrated strong teamwork in this tournament; Belgium, on the other hand, possesses rich experience in major tournaments and many players playing in top European leagues, giving them considerable competitiveness in the knockout stages. Currently, there is no clear consensus in the market, with both sides considered to have a chance of advancing. This match may become one of the most suspenseful contests in the Round of 16.
Predict.funWorld Cup Knockout Stage: Brazil's chances of advancing reach 68%, Norway receives 31% market support
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, data from the prediction market platform [2024111120230] shows that Brazil will face Norway in the Round of 16 of the 2026 USA-CMC World Cup. As of press time, the market gives Brazil an approximately 68% probability of advancing, while Norway has an approximately 31% probability. Traders generally favor the "five-time champions Brazil" to advance to the quarterfinals. It's worth noting that this will be the first time the two teams have met in the World Cup in 28 years. In the 1998 World Cup group stage, Norway came from behind to defeat Brazil 2-1, and current coach Solbåken was a member of that Norwegian team. This match will also be a contest between the two teams' top scorers: Brazilian striker Vinicius has scored 4 goals in this tournament, while Norwegian striker Haaland has scored 5. Their performances may be key to the outcome of the match.
Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Yamal, predict.fun The probability of "Spain defeating Portugal" is currently reported as 51%.
According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, in the prediction event "World Cup Round of 16 Portugal vs. Spain" (date unspecified), Portugal's probability of winning is currently 24%; the probability of a draw is currently 27%; and Spain's probability of winning is currently 51%. This prediction only refers to the results of matches within the first 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time). At 3:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, Portugal will face Spain in the World Cup Round of 16. Although Portugal boasts several attacking stars such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Leao, the team did not have an easy time against Croatia in the last round, with several attacks interrupted by offsides in regular time, and their rhythm of the game was also somewhat passive at times. In contrast, Spain's overall performance in this World Cup has been more stable, with a more systematic approach to passing, pressing, and wing play. Against a team like Portugal that relies on the individual abilities of its star players to open up the game, if Spain can maintain control of the midfield and limit the opponent's counter-attacking space, they still have a greater chance of winning the game within 90 minutes. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
OKX World Cup prediction event adds a separate prize pool for the quarterfinals, with a total value of approximately 225,000 U.
According to official sources, as the 2026 Odaily Cup enters the quarterfinals, OKX's World Cup prediction activity will add five independent prize pools, covering predictions for the four final teams and multiple single-match predictions. These prize pools are sponsored and co-built by ecosystem partners including Fabric Protocol, Block Street, AIW3, Midnight, and Nesa, with rewards in multiple cryptocurrencies such as ROBO, USDT, and Night, totaling approximately 225,000 USDT. In addition, predictions for the championship team, the Golden Boot award, and other categories are open for users to participate in.