Trump pressures retailers to cut prices to combat inflation, demanding supermarkets lower beef prices.
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Williams: Recent inflation outlook is more positive due to energy prices
According to Mars Finance, as reported by Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that his view on inflation has become more positive recently due to the impact of energy prices.
Saudi Arabia drastically cut crude oil prices, with the largest drop in at least 26 years.
Odaily Odaily reports that Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for key crude oil grades to Asian customers in August, the largest reduction in at least 26 years, as surging global supply intensifies competition for buyers. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of its Arab Light crude oil exports to Asia by $11 per barrel in August, representing a discount of $1.50 per barrel to the regional benchmark price. This reduction is larger than the $8 per barrel expected in institutional surveys. Middle Eastern crude oil prices have recently declined. After resuming exports from the Rastanura port on the Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco had increased its crude oil shipments to approximately 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Rastanula was Saudi Arabia's main port of call for crude oil exports. Due to the war's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Previously, the OPEC+ oil-producing group had agreed to continue a small production increase in August. Now, with the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jinshi)
Bitcoin bullish sentiment was supported by a decline in inflation expectations, with the market focusing on the July CPI data.
According to Mars Finance, the cryptocurrency market continued its stabilizing trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, marking its strongest weekly performance since March. This surge was primarily driven by declining inflation expectations. The break-even inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has recently declined significantly, with the two-year indicator falling below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, and long-term inflation expectations also weakening. Simultaneously, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, dropping to levels similar to those before the geopolitical conflict in February, prompting the market to reassess inflationary pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory. Some analysts believe that a weaker dollar index (DXY) will further reduce resistance to Bitcoin's rise, as the two typically have a negative correlation. However, others caution that service sector inflation remains sticky, and declining oil prices do not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall inflation trend; monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher and longer" stance. The next key market juncture is the US June CPI data on July 14th, which could be a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets.
SATA pre-market prices rebounded to near $100 par value; today marks the 20th consecutive dividend payment.
Odaily Odaily News | _2024111120230_ | An article published on the X platform states that pre-market trading has begun, with SATA prices rebounding to near $100 par value and STRC slightly rising above $90. SATA will pay its 20th consecutive dividend today, powered by Apyx_fi, offering a double-digit yield to all.
Citigroup: The case for raising interest rates has disappeared; the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts in October.
According to BlockBeats, on July 5th, Citigroup Research stated in its weekly US economic report released on July 2nd that the significantly weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in June strongly refuted the necessity of raising interest rates. Citigroup believes that several factors previously supporting a hawkish stance, including rising oil prices, accelerating wage growth, and core PCE exceeding the target, have faded, and "the rationale for raising rates has disappeared." Data shows that US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised downward by a combined 74,000. After the revision, the average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls over the past three months fell to approximately 111,000, a significant drop from the pre-revision level of over 180,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.296% to 4.189% in June, but Citigroup believes this was mainly due to the labor force participation rate falling from 61.8% to 61.5%. If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the actual unemployment rate would have risen to over 4.5%. Regarding inflation, Citigroup stated that multiple factors are collectively suppressing price pressures. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and July CPI and PCE data are expected to show a month-on-month decline; further slowdown in housing rents will also drag down core CPI and core PCE. Furthermore, the revised core PCE methodology will adopt a more reasonable price adjustment method for AI-related goods. Citigroup estimates that the revised core PCE year-on-year growth rate may be lowered by 20 to 30 basis points, and will be officially reflected in September. Citigroup maintains its baseline forecast, expecting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at the July and September FOMC meetings, cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time at the October 28 meeting, and then cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of the year. Citigroup also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times in 2027, with a terminal interest rate range of 2.75% to 3.0%.
The protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million" story recounts his experience: He discovered an opportunity in the AI storage sector due to rising hard drive prices and recommends investing in AI companies to hedge against the risk of being replaced by AI.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, concluded his review of his US stock investment experience on Binance Square. Some of his remarks are as follows: Around August of last year, his investment style shifted to value investing, with his main holdings allocated to indices, especially the Nasdaq 100, and a portion invested in companies he actively selected, such as Google. At that time, wanting to build a database and backtest his investment strategy using quantitative methods, he purchased two hard drives on Pinduoduo, subsequently discovering that hard drive prices were continuously rising. He stated that the rising hard drive prices became the first signal that drew his attention to the storage sector. At that time, reports already mentioned that AI was driving up memory prices, and hard drive prices were rising in tandem. The second signal came from his experience as a Data Engineer; ByteDance was also requiring its teams to shorten data lifecycles, i.e., reduce data storage time, for example, from two or three years to one year or six months, and delete redundant data, due to insufficient storage resources. Leto Bao stated that based on the rising hard drive prices, AI storage needs, and research report analysis, he initially bought some related stocks, but did not immediately invest heavily, because he had not yet seen concrete evidence at the time. He then discovered through 13F institutional holdings that institutions had been increasing their positions in related sectors for three consecutive quarters before he began to increase his own positions and has held them ever since. He stated that he currently still holds positions related to storage and has already achieved significant returns. Leto Bao noted that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is also one of the key indicators closely watched by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates significant inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Fed's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, implying slow currency depreciation, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the operation of the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Fed policies, and earnings season should not be simply regarded as "noise" but all have certain reference value. He mentioned that he had previously ignored the interest rate hike environment when investing in Nvidia, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be considered in investment decisions. Finally, Leto Bao advised that investments should begin as early as possible, and funds should be allocated to relevant assets as soon as possible. Many jobs and positions will be affected by AI in the future, so ordinary people who want to hedge against the risk of being replaced by AI can consider investing in AI-related companies. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made a substantial profit by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market, earning approximately 30 million RMB before resigning. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which led him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.