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Goldman Sachs: South Korean stocks are expected to see a broad-based rally in the second half of the year; maintains KOSPI target of 12,000 points.
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more sectors including energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities. Regarding market concerns about a bubble in the South Korean stock market, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in margin balances is mainly due to the growth of leveraged ETF net asset value, rather than new borrowing by investors. South Korean residents' assets are still mainly in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows. Goldman Sachs predicts that South Korean companies' overall net profit will increase by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026 and will maintain a growth rate of approximately 35% in 2027. It maintains its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), representing an upside of over 20% from current levels, but expects increased market volatility in the future.
Goldman Sachs: Expects South Korea's KOSPI index to reach 12,000 points in the next 12 months.
According to Odaily Odaily, Goldman Sachs predicts that the South Korean KOSPI index will reach 12,000 points within the next 12 months, representing an increase of more than 20% from current levels. However, Goldman Sachs also warns that this upward trend may be "winding." In the market, tech stocks are poised for a strong start to the week, while the South Korean memory chip giant will once again test the waters of artificial intelligence trading. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%, and Dow futures were essentially flat. Samsung Electronics will report earnings on Tuesday; the chipmaker's stock has risen 165% this year, and its financial performance will be closely watched. A few days later, SK Hynix will also proceed with its $29 billion U.S. IPO.
Goldman Sachs injects a strong boost into South Korean stocks: another 20% rise in the second half of the year! Market leverage risk is overestimated, and opportunities will spread to six main themes.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, Goldman Sachs released its second-half strategy framework for the South Korean stock market, maintaining its 12-month target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI index, representing over 20% upside from current levels. The core support comes from a 320% year-on-year earnings growth forecast and a forward P/E ratio of only 6.65. This indicator is 2.7 standard deviations below its historical average, the lowest since 2009. In the first half of the year, South Korean stocks led Asia with a 92% gain, but this growth was primarily driven by upward revisions to earnings rather than valuation expansion: forward EPS was revised upwards by nearly 200%, while the forward P/E ratio actually compressed slightly. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix contributed nearly 90% of the index's gains, with their combined market capitalization weight rising to 56% and their earnings weight reaching 72%. Goldman Sachs believes this concentration reflects earnings more accurately than a bubble, but market breadth has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, and continued gains in the second half of the year will likely lead to increased volatility. Regarding retail investor concerns, Goldman Sachs points out that leverage levels are overvalued. The growth in leveraged ETF size is primarily driven by asset appreciation rather than new leveraged funds. The margin loan-to-deposit ratio is actually declining, indicating that retail investors still hold substantial cash reserves and their asset allocation remains heavily focused on real estate. Goldman Sachs believes that opportunities in the Korean stock market in the second half of the year will expand from memory chips to six main themes: the industrial sector (accelerated defense orders, unmet demand for VLCC replacements), robotics and physical AI (Korea's auto parts ecosystem is expected to become a core supplier of humanoid robots), batteries and power infrastructure (driven by data center energy storage demand), beneficiaries of corporate governance reforms (multiple regulations implemented since July, with over 70% of listed companies having a PBR below 1), reflation trading (semiconductor profit spillover effects driving upward revisions to GDP and extending the interest rate hike cycle), and the semiconductor capital expenditure supply chain (the government plans to invest 800 trillion won in three major projects). Goldman Sachs also warns of three risks: seasonal weakness in the third quarter, technical correction pressure from a significant deviation of the index from the moving average, and amplified volatility due to hedging operations by leveraged ETF market makers. The combination of earnings growth and low valuations makes South Korea the market with the lowest PEG ratio in Asia, and the current valuation misalignment provides significant room for stock selection in the second half of the year.
Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its yen forecast, predicting it could fall to 165 within a year.
According to Odaily Odaily, Goldman Sachs predicts that the yen will fall to 165 against the US dollar within a year due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, a further downward revision from its previous forecast of 155, making it one of the most bearish institutions on the yen. Strategist Fishman points out that the pressure on the yen to depreciate stems from Japan's fiscal pressure, high US Treasury yields, and the Bank of Japan's slow interest rate hikes, despite the yen being severely undervalued. Positioning supports further yen weakness. Data shows that hedge funds' bearish bets on the yen hit a new high since 2017 last month, with the market believing there is a 72% probability that the USD/JPY exchange rate will rise to 165 by June next year. Goldman Sachs also favors carry trades using the yen as a funding currency, i.e., borrowing yen to invest in high-yield assets. The bank predicts the USD/JPY exchange rate will be 162 in three months and 163 in six months (previously 160 and 158 respectively), and believes that official intervention will have a short-lived effect, and the root causes of the yen's weakness remain. (Jinshi)
Goldman Sachs: Investors reduce holdings in large technology companies
According to Odaily Odaily, Goldman Sachs stated that investors are reducing their exposure to the "Big Seven" and instead favoring beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, such as semiconductor companies, rather than hyperscale cloud providers that fund large-scale AI spending. Goldman Sachs believes the market is rewarding companies that are generating returns from their AI investments while questioning those that are bearing the costs. Caution towards large tech companies is likely to persist until hyperscale cloud providers demonstrate stronger earnings growth.
Goldman Sachs: A 1% increase in the weighting of Samsung and SK Hynix could lead to approximately $2 billion in foreign capital outflows from the South Korean market.
According to BlockBeats, on June 30th, Goldman Sachs' Timothy Moe and John Kwon pointed out that a 1% increase in the combined weighting of Samsung and SK Hynix in the South Korean stock index could lead to foreign investors withdrawing approximately $2 billion from the South Korean market, as the US Investment Company Act requires portfolios to meet diversification thresholds. Goldman Sachs also stated that a large influx of funds into leveraged ETFs, coupled with increased options trading and margin retail trading, has created a structural environment where daily price volatility far exceeds what corporate fundamentals can support. South Korea's asset management growth since last year has primarily stemmed from investment returns rather than new capital inflows. As valuations climb, institutional investors' mechanical exposure to market volatility is also increasing—often related to hedging strategies. This means that even a mild market correction could trigger a cascade of forced selling.