Bitunix Analyst: Global Funds Await New Policy Signals; Dollar and Energy Continue to Dominate Market Momentum
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Bitunix Analyst: Market Awaits Non-Farm Payrolls Data; Fed Maintains Data-Driven Policy Stance
According to BlockBeats, on July 2nd, global markets remained cautious, with funds focused on the upcoming US June non-farm payroll report. The market generally expects job growth to slow compared to the previous month, but whether the labor market remains resilient, and whether there are new changes in wages and the unemployment rate, will directly affect market judgment on the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path. Prior to the data release, ADP job growth was lower than market expectations, but corporate layoffs remained low, indicating that the US job market has not yet shown significant signs of weakening, and the market still needs further confirmation from the non-farm payroll data. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated at the Global Central Bank Forum that recent inflation expectations and inflation risks have declined, but reiterated that he would not provide forward policy guidance and stated that balance sheet reduction will continue, while the dot plot will remain a policy communication tool in the short term. Overall, the Federal Reserve did not release a clear signal of a policy shift, but continued to emphasize adjusting policy based on economic data, shifting market focus back to employment, inflation, and subsequent economic data themselves, rather than trading in policy outcomes in advance. Regarding global liquidity, Japan's monetary policy remains a key variable closely watched by the market. Recent improvements in business sentiment and inflation expectations have led the market to still anticipate the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year; however, the yen remains near historically low levels, indicating that global funds are still primarily influenced by US dollar interest rates and the US-Japan interest rate differential. Further normalization of Japanese policy could continue to drive global arbitrage trading and cross-market capital flows, becoming a significant factor affecting global liquidity. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a range, and market risk appetite has not yet shown significant improvement. Given the Federal Reserve's continued data-driven decision-making, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Japan's monetary policy, and the global market's continued awaiting confirmation from key economic data, short-term market sentiment will remain dominated by macroeconomic events. The upcoming non-farm payroll report and speeches by Federal Reserve officials will remain crucial indicators of volatility in global risk assets and the cryptocurrency market.
Bitunix analyst: The market is starting to repric employment, but what really needs to be observed is global liquidity.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, the US added 57,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, significantly lower than market expectations. Data for the previous two months was also revised downwards, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%. On the surface, the job market shows signs of cooling, but the decline in the labor force participation rate means that the improvement in the unemployment rate is not entirely due to increased employment, making this non-farm payroll data present a relatively contradictory signal. The market has therefore lowered its expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, with inflation still above the policy target, the direction of monetary policy remains highly dependent on subsequent economic data and officials' speeches. Regarding the Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that current policy remains at a slightly restrictive level and will continue to adjust policy based on inflation and economic data, without changing its stance based on a single report. Meanwhile, Trump continues to push for personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and stated that Warsh is facing a "hostile board," meaning political factors may continue to influence market judgments on future monetary policy. In the short term, the market will pay closer attention to whether subsequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials begin to revise their interest rate hike expectations. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a range. Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, while the market lowered some expectations for interest rate hikes, it did not trigger a unified buying spree in risk assets. Currently, the market is more focused on subsequent US economic data, policy signals from the Federal Reserve, and whether changes in global liquidity will alter risk appetite. Until the policy direction becomes clearer, the crypto market may continue to trade within a range, awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts.
Bitunix Analyst: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Continue to Rise, Market Awaits Non-Farm Payrolls and Central Bank Signals for Confirmation
According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, global markets continued to reprice monetary policy. US May JOLTs job openings exceeded market expectations, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that inflation remains above target, and further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Interest rate futures currently reflect an approximately 80% probability of a September rate hike. The market will now focus on this week's non-farm payroll report and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's first public speech at a global central bank forum, hoping to further confirm the Fed's latest views on inflation, employment, and the future policy path. Besides US policy, the Japanese market has also become a focus of global capital. Japan's latest Tankan survey shows that business confidence and inflation expectations have improved simultaneously, and market expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year continue to rise. However, the Japanese government confirmed that it did not intervene in the foreign exchange market from the end of April to the end of May, and the yen remains near its lowest level in nearly four decades, reflecting that market pricing in the US-Japan interest rate differential still dominates. If Japan accelerates its interest rate hikes or resumes official intervention in the foreign exchange market, it could impact global arbitrage trading and cross-market capital flows, causing renewed volatility in the global liquidity environment. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with market sentiment relatively conservative. Currently, the market is focusing not only on individual economic data but also on whether the Federal Reserve will further confirm its high-interest-rate policy and whether Japan's monetary policy will alter global funding costs and liquidity allocation. Until these macroeconomic variables become clearer, risk assets are expected to maintain an event-driven volatility pattern. Subsequent non-farm payroll data, Warsh's remarks, and changes in Bank of Japan policy expectations will be key areas of continued market observation.
Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.
Bitunix Analyst: The Real Test for Risk Assets Comes from Capital, Not War
According to Mars Finance, on July 6th, the global market continued its trend of "cooling risk events and repricing liquidity." OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188,000 barrels per day in August, the US and Iran maintained room for negotiation, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, further reducing energy supply risks. On the other hand, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, market focus is gradually shifting to a new round of diplomatic negotiations that Trump may push for, and how the fiscal and monetary policies of various countries will affect global capital flows in the second half of the year. At the macro level, more divergent signals emerged. The European Central Bank believes that the decline in oil prices has cooled inflation again, while Germany is preparing to expand its borrowing due to lower-than-expected fiscal revenue. Japan still faces pressure from a weak yen and interest rate differentials, while companies such as Micron, Samsung, and Infineon continue to increase their investments in AI and semiconductors, indicating that global capital is still concentrated in AI infrastructure rather than flowing back to high-risk assets. In the crypto market, funding remains conservative. Cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $275 million in the past week, reflecting that even with some easing of geopolitical risks, institutional funds have not actively replenished their positions. Currently, the market is more focused on whether global liquidity will improve again, rather than on short-term events themselves. ETF fund flows will remain a key indicator of market risk appetite. Looking ahead, if oil prices remain low and geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, market focus will gradually shift back to global funding costs, national monetary policies, and the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Before new funds enter the market, the crypto market may continue to consolidate within a range, awaiting the next significant shift in fund flows.
Bitunix Analyst: Canceling Iranian Oil Waivers and Deteriorating Hormuz Situation Increase Risk Asset Volatility
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, global markets were focused on the renewed deterioration of the situation in the Middle East. The US not only expanded its military strikes against Iran but also revoked waivers for Iranian oil sales, further escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. International oil prices surged by approximately 5%, reflecting the market's re-inflation of energy supply uncertainty. The situation is no longer just a simple military conflict; rather, it involves a simultaneous increase in risks to energy transportation and the global supply chain. Iran continues to strengthen its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military has raised the local shipping threat level to "serious," indicating that global energy transportation remains highly volatile. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's plan to expand its Red Sea oil pipeline shows that major oil-producing countries have already planned alternative transportation routes to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that lower energy prices have helped improve short-term inflation, but policy remains in an appropriate position. He did not provide clear guidance on future interest rate direction, and the Fed will continue to adjust policy based on economic data. It is worth noting that the risks in the US technology sector have also increased simultaneously. Nasdaq 100 volatility has reached a two-decade high, with AI-related trading remaining highly concentrated. Some Wall Street institutions have begun using options for hedging and are gradually shifting funds towards defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, reflecting profit-taking pressure on highly valued tech stocks. In the crypto market, Bitcoin remains range-bound. Short-term market liquidity is mainly concentrated in four key liquidation zones: $62,500 and $60,000 on the downside, and $64,300 and $67,700 on the upside. With continued macroeconomic disruptions, prices may still see liquidity liquidation around highly leveraged positions, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high. The market will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.